One way to detect where civil disorder, rebellion or wars are going to break out is to follow the money. Rather, follow the use of money and things like how difficult it is to do business in a country. This sort of information is so useful (for determining if a country is worth investing in) that there are regular global surveys of competitiveness and economic freedom. One such survey (Global Competitiveness Index) covers 144 countries and the bottom (least competitive) countries (Venezuela, Malawi, Mozambique, Myanmar, Burkina Faso, Timor-leste, Haiti, Sierra Leone, Burundi, Angola, Mauritania, Yemen, Chad, Guinea) are among the most unruly and troublesome on the planet. At the other extreme the top ten percent (Switzerland, Singapore, United States, Finland, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Taiwan, Canada) are all much less troublesome nations.
While investors concentrate on the nations at the top of the list, defense planners and intelligence agencies spend most of their efforts at the bottom of the list.