Peace Time: China Tries To Avoid Another War


September 7, 2011: China and Vietnam have agreed to establish a hot-line, to insure that any future disputes do not turn violent. This is a good idea. China and Vietnam have been fighting for centuries. In the past the violence was mainly over a disagreement about Vietnam’s status. China considered Vietnam a rebellious province, while Vietnam considered itself independent. Despite extensive Chinese help in fighting the French after World War II and support for North Vietnam efforts to invade South Vietnam, China and a united Vietnam fought a short war in 1979. Technically, China won, but in reality the Chinese got clobbered and have never got over that. In 1988, China and Vietnam fought a naval battle, off the Spratly islands. This was a Chinese victory, in which a Chinese warship sank a Vietnamese transport carrying troops headed for one of the disputed islands. This was followed by Chinese troops establishing garrisons on some of the islands. In 1992, Chinese marines landed on Da Lac reef, in the Spratly Islands. In 1995, Chinese marines occupied Mischief Reef, which was claimed by the Philippines, but as a pointed reminder to Vietnam as well. With this history of violence, and continued disputes over some islands, a hot-line is a good idea.

But this animosity is not restricted to Vietnam. China continues to threaten nations that get too close to the Chinese coast, or challenge Chinese territorial claims. The latest incident occurred when, on July 27th, China criticized the United States for flying one of its U-2 recon aircraft too close to the Chinese coast. In this June incident, a Chinese Su-27 went after the U-2, and was in turn intercepted by two Taiwanese F-16s. All this took place over international waters. The only problem is that China has a definition of territorial waters that the international community does not agree with.

International law (the 1994 Law of the Sea treaty) recognizes the waters 22 kilometers from land as under the jurisdiction of the nation controlling the nearest land. That means ships cannot enter these "territorial waters" without permission. Moreover, the waters 360 kilometers from land are considered the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), of the nation controlling the nearest land. The EEZ owner can control who fishes there, and extract natural resources (mostly oil and gas) from the ocean floor. But the EEZ owner cannot prohibit free passage, or the laying of pipelines and communications cables. China, however, claims that foreign military ships and aircraft cannot enter its EEZ, and sometimes uses force. This is usually done with Chinese owned fishing or cargo ships, which move very close and persuade the “invaders” to leave. It is feared that eventually China will use one of its growing number of warships to challenge some foreign warship "invading" its EEZ. The 1994 treaty says nothing about blocking warships from your EEZ, but some nations believe it is allowed. China is simply doing what China has been doing for centuries, trying to impose its will on neighbors, or anyone venturing into what China considers areas under its control.

For the last three centuries, China has been prevented from exercising its "traditional rights" in nearby waters because of the superior power of foreign navies (first the cannon armed European sailing ships, then, in the 19th century, newly built steel warships from Japan). However, since the communists took over China 60 years ago, there have been increasingly violent attempts to reassert Chinese control over areas that have long (for centuries) been considered part of the "Middle Kingdom" (or "zhong-guo", as in the "center of the world").

China's other neighbors are also responding to this aggressive attitude. Taiwan has reinforced garrisons on disputed islands in the South China Sea. Taiwan is particularly concerned about the Pratas Islands, which only China and Taiwan dispute control of. These are 340 kilometers southeast of Hong Kong, and 850 kilometers southwest of Taiwan. Only one of the three islands is above water, and it (Pratas Island) is 2.8 kilometers long and 850 meters wide. There were never any permanent inhabitants. But now Taiwan maintains a military garrison (about 200 personnel) and an air strip. There is also "service station" for fisherman and researchers working on the island or nearby.

More valuable, and more newsworthy, though, are a larger group of islands south of the Pratas. These are the Spratlys, a group of some 100 islets, atolls, and reefs that total only about 5 square kilometers of land, but sprawl across some 410,000 square kilometers of the South China Sea. Set amid some of the world's most productive fishing grounds, the islands are believed to have enormous oil and gas reserves. Several nations have overlapping claims on the group. About 45 of the islands are currently occupied by small numbers of military personnel. China claims them all, but occupies only 8, Vietnam has occupied or marked 25, the Philippines 8, Malaysia 6, and Taiwan one.

Two years ago, Taiwan built a 1,150 meter long, and 30 meter wide air strip on Itu Aba, one of the Spratly Islands, 500 kilometers to the south. Called Taiping Island by the Taiwanese, Ita Aba is one of the largest of Spratly Islands, at about 120 acres (489,600 square meters). It has been in Taiwanese hands since the mid-1950s, and has largely been used as a way station for fishermen. The island is also claimed by the Vietnamese, who call it Thai Binh. Taiwan has long maintained a small military presence on the island, and the air strip is meant to cement that control. Protests were made by Vietnam, which controls the largest group of islands, and the Philippines, which also claim Itu Aba Island. The Vietnamese earlier refurbished an old South Vietnamese airstrip on Big Spratly Island. Recently, both the Chinese and Vietnamese were seen building more structures, including armed bunkers, on the Spratly islands they occupy. Malaysia has built an air strip on its Spratly island, which it uses to fly in tourists looking for prime scuba diving. There are now believed to be at least six air strips in the Spratlys.

China is also demanding that the Philippines halt oil exploration in the Spratly Islands, without saying exactly what would happen otherwise. The Philippines has asked the United States to help establish Filipino claims in the Spratly islands. China claims to own any oil and gas in the South China Sea. This claim is not recognized by any international agreement. China is apparently trying to bully other claimants (especially the Philippines and Vietnam) into staying away from these potential assets. All China offers are to "share" these undersea bonanzas. But the implication is that China will get most of the profits, with the other claimants getting little. China insists that the U.S. should stay out of this dispute, as it is not one of the claimants. The quarrel has sparked nationalist passions in all the nations involved. The United States has said it will stand by many of the non-Chinese claims, but no details of military cooperation have yet been announced.

The small countries all fear that China will eventually make good on its long-standing claim to all the Spratlys, as well as all similar islands and reefs in the South China Sea. At that point, the international community will have to worry about continued free passage through an area that currently sees about two trillion dollars worth of cargo moved through each year. With this in mind, the United States is backing China's neighbors, and refusing to bend to Chinese demands.




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