September 18, 2007: The
Taliban continue trying, and failing, to use groups of gunmen to drive police
and soldiers out of southern Afghanistan. For the last month, the Taliban have
been losing several hundred men a week (dead, wounded, captured). The Taliban
continue to get nailed when they try to attack soldiers or police patrols with
an ambush or attack. Bombers or helicopter gunships quickly show up, and the
Taliban are scattered, with heavy casualties. The inability to assert military
control has led more tribal leaders to openly back the government. This can be
dangerous, if the Taliban are able to keep armed men into the tribal areas. But
the Taliban groups are being attacked and shattered with great regularity. This
has forced the Taliban to raise the pay rates. While the Afghan police and
soldiers make less than half what the Taliban offer (up to $12 a day), the
government men are much more likely to live to spend their pay. Each time a
band of Taliban (usually 30-50 armed men) get blasted, the survivors go back to
their villages to warn potential recruits that the Taliban offer poisoned
money, that can quickly get you killed.
The only tactics the
Taliban are having any success at are suicide bombers and roadside bombs. But
casualties are low, and most of them Afghan civilians, which just makes the
Taliban more unpopular. But the Taliban terrorists are pushing this tactic, and
have arranged with Iran have obtain armor piercing roadside bombs, of the
same design provided to Iraqi terrorists. Several of these have been captured
by NATO troops in the last few weeks, in arms shipments being smuggled in from
Iran.
The government has sent
additional police and army units to run down the Taliban group that recently
got $20 million ransom from the South Korean government. Several junior
commanders and dozens of gunmen from that group have already been killed or
captured. No sign of the money yet, or at least no one is talking. That much
cash is a major temptation, and the Taliban have had problems with sticky fingered
leaders in the past. The Taliban are not immune to the corrupt practices that
are so common in the region.
Taliban leaders are
negotiating how they will go about conducting peace talks. These negotiations
are moved forward by Taliban defeats. For most of the Summer, the Taliban were
losing over ten men for every government or foreign soldier they killed. As
long as that keeps up, the Taliban will become more and more accommodating and
keen to make a deal. The Taliban cause is not driven just by religion, there
are also large amounts of tribal politics, personal ambition and greed.
