January 29, 2026: Over twenty years ago, Russia and Sweden signed a trade agreement that included coil bearings used in the axles and wheels of railroad cars. Railroad coil bearings are more expensive than the ball bearings formerly used for rail car axles, but are so much more durable, reliable and cheaper to install, maintain and replace that overall lifetime purchase and operation of them is at least 10% cheaper.

Russia could not manufacture its own railroad coil bearings because it could not manufacture the technologically sophisticated high-alloy steels those required. This agreement included sale of Swedish-manufactured railroad coil bearings and some of the necessary special high-alloy steels to Russia, and licensed Swedish computer programs for Russia to assemble its own railroad coil bearings. Russia then stopped training new personnel to pack, install and maintain the old-style ball bearings it was then using, and let them gradually age out of the work force as more and more of its rail cars were converted to coil bearings. Germany and some other countries also manufacture railroad coil bearings, and Germany did sell those to Russia among others.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Sweden joined the nations imposing economic sanctions on Russia, and those included assembled coil bearings, the high quality alloys those required, and the computer programs Russian factories required to assemble their own. Sweden issued a kill code to wipe out the coil bearing software in Russia, and terminated all coil-bearing related exports to Russia. So did all the other countries which sold them to Russia. That put Russia in a world of hurt as most of its rail car & engine fleet had converted to coil bearings, while it no longer produced enough sufficient quality ball bearings for railroad cars. Plus it no longer had enough trained personnel to install and maintain those.

Basically the Russian railroad system was on borrowed time from the onset of sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. Railroad coil bearings do wear out. Russia’s entire railroad system would have begun collapsing last year and its ability to continue the war would probably be over now.

But in early 2023 Sweden quietly resumed exports of railroad coil bearings to Russia. Russia’s rail system has many problems, but lack of coil bearings isn’t one of them. China produces its own rail axle coil bearings, but those aren’t anywhere near as good as Western ones, and China hasn’t sold any to Russia because of the sanctions.

During World War II Sweden, while technically neutral and anti-Nazi, did trade with the Germans. Exports included metals and ball bearings essential to the German war effort. Meanwhile, Sweden has continued to prepare for a possible Russian attack.

Eight years ago, for the first time since 1961 Sweden sent to all 4.7 million households a brochure describing what they should do in the event of war as in a Russian invasion. Reflecting the sharp political differences on the possibility of war, the brochure will also cover similar actions Swedes should take if the catastrophe is some aspect of the Climate Change threat or a massive hacker or terror attack.

Neighbors of Sweden have played down Climate Change, hackers and terrorists and concentrated on the Russian threat. Across the Baltic Sea NATO members Lithuania and Latvia had issued similar publications to all their citizens. Lithuania led the way when, in late 2016, when a 75 page manual on how to survive another Russian occupation appeared. What all citizens received was called Prepare to Survive Emergencies and War. Lithuania has plenty of experience with being invaded and occupied by Russia and wants to remind its citizens what works, especially now that Lithuania has a mutual defense treaty with the United States and all other NATO members operates not fast enough to keep the Russians out. The prepare to survive guide provides tips on how to behave when dealing with the invader while also spying on the occupation force. The manual provided illustrations and description of most Russian weapons and details of how the Russians use secret police, local informants and special operations troops to try and control an occupied population. The manual also pointed out that Russia would send in agents or activate ones it has already recruited before an invasion and provides tips on how to detect the presence of these agents, especially in preparation for an imminent invasion.