Iraq: September 17, 2004


The anti-government forces feel they are winning with their terror tactics. This is a misleading assessment, but typical of the Arab nationalists and religious zealots who comprise most of the armed opposition. These folks keep score by watching the TV news, which explains why they are so detached from reality. While the terror tactics have had a noticeable effect on reporters, UN staff and other non-participants in Iraqi reconstruction, the Iraqis themselves are undeterred by the violence. Same for coalition troops and most  foreign workers.  The average Iraqi wants the new government to succeed, because the alternative is a return to the tyranny of the past. The terror tactics are not working against the Iraqis, so the anti-government forces are concentrating more on foreigners. This means more foreigners are being kidnapped. This is a pure desperation play, as it's the resolve of the Iraqi people that will determine this civil war. While Saddam was defeated and captured, the hundreds of thousands of thugs who kept him in power are still out there, and still fighting to get their power, and jobs, back. 


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