Iraq: October 3, 2002


After The Coming War With Iraq- Imagine Iraq, a year from how, with a democratic government and a US military garrison on the order of that in Germany (VII Corps, two heavy divisions, a cavalry regiment, a helicopter brigade, three artillery brigades, one air defense brigade, and a whole host of support organizations, plus equipment stockpiles to double that force by simply flying in troops). With that much force on the ground and two victorious wars under their belt, the US would be the strongest regional power in the Middle East (just as it was in Western Europe), able to strike into Iran, Syria, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia as needed. Rather than being on the outside trying to figure out a way in, the US would be on the inside and able to exert tremendous influence. And the military aspect is secondary to the economic one. Protected by the US military, US companies would invest heavily in Iraq, causing its economy to boom and its people to quickly become enamored with US products. With the only functional democracy in the Arab world, Iraqis would have more freedom than other Arabs and be less likely to tolerate terrorists in their midst. With US oil companies involved, Iraqi production would boom, and a pliable Iraqi government (after signing 99-year base leases) would effectively cede control over the volume of its oil exports to Washington, giving the US unprecedented influence over the international oil market. This kind of influence would make the US a much more powerful (and independent) superpower and has the Europeans absolutely terrified. Is it any wonder they oppose a US attack?

Some Analysts expect the Europeans to work their way around to supporting a US-led war to remove Saddam from power in Iraq. The US is going to invade anyway and will certainly win. After that victory, the Iraqi people will probably see the US as a liberator and forge new economic and political ties with the US. Only by joining the war effort can the Europeans hope to limit or match US influence in post-war Iraq.--Stephen V Cole

Iraq has agreed for the resumption of arms inspection under the rules agreed upon in the late 1990s. But these rules didn't work, as they allowed exemptions for eight  "presidential palaces" (which are actually large industrial parks that contain weapons research facilities). 


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