Iraq: December 27, 2001


Turkey has lost it's initial enthusiasm for a campaign on Iraq. Apparently noting the reaction in (mostly Kurdish) northern Iraq, the Turks realized that even if northern portion of Iraq (formerly the Turkish province of Mosul) was annexed by Turkey, the attitude among Kurds in Iraq and Turkey is that all this would be a splendid opportunity to declare the creation of a Turkish state. The UN has long been tolerant of this sort of thing, but would only act if there were a dramatic development, like another war in, and the dismemberment of,  Iraq. The Gulf Arab nations are also leery of war against Iraq, for any free elections in Iraq would likely result in a Shiite government. The mainly Sunni Arabs of Arabia have long had problems with their Shia minority. Worst of all, Iran is nearly all Shia, and contains millions of Shia Arabs in the southwest. Thus the Gulf states prefer to keep Saddam Hussein and his Sunni Arab minority in power. 


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