Iran: A Perfect Plan

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April 26, 2006: The government says it will share nuclear technology with other countries, particularly Islamic countries. The government has boasted of its nuclear program, and the ability to refine uranium into uranium fuel for power plants. But that same refining process can produce nuclear material for atomic bombs.

April 25, 2006: The government is confident that a military attack by America or Israel would simply make the Islamic government more popular inside Iran, and would not do serious damage to the nuclear weapons program, or anything else. Rising oil prices make it unlikely that such an attack would be launched, because military operations would disrupt oil shipments. Iranian oil is more valuable to the rest of the world than it is to the Iranians. By building and testing a nuclear bomb, the Islamic government would gain more support within the country, where, currently, only about a third of the population supports it. While it would never admit it openly, the Islamic conservatives ruling Iran know they are operating a dictatorship, and would like to gain enough popularity to win a fair election.

April 22, 2006: With the arrival of Spring comes another campaign by the government to keep women dressed modestly. The warm weather finds many young women modifying their modest Islamic clothing to show a little more shape, hair, ankle or whatever. In the capital, another 200 morals police will be unleashed to make sure the women know their place.

April 20, 2006: The U.S. is trying to pressure Russia to not sell anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran. The Russians are not willing to pass up a $700 million sale, but may be willing to part with technical details of the missile systems, so that American electronic countermeasures can render the missiles useless. The Americans may have already gotten this information through the back door, but it's still nice to have the Russians hand it to you. American agents have been active in the Russian arms industry for over a decade, paying for useful information that might save American lives in some future war involving Russian weapons.

April 12, 2006: Recent military exercises off the coast, brought out much of the Iranian navy, and made it pretty obvious that this navy was no match for the opposition. The Iranians have put a lot of faith in hundreds of smaller boats, manned by religious fanatics and armed with light weapons. While some of these boats could be used for suicide bomb attacks, NATO and Arab warships in the Persian Gulf have been armed, and seen practicing, to take on many, many small boats. Special sensors (heat sensing) and weapons (small caliber automatic cannon) have been installed on many NATO and Arab ships for the express purpose of quickly sinking Iran's fleet. Then there is the weak Iranian air force, which cannot threaten or protect. Although Iran has many Chinese anti-ship missiles, it's not believed there are enough of these missiles, or good enough tactics for their use, to close the Straits of Hormuz, and cut off 25 percent of the world's oil supply.

April 11, 2006: The government is blaming unrest among Iranian Kurds (in the northwest), Arabs (in the southwest) and Baluchis (in the southeast) on American Special Forces and CIA agents. But in fact, these groups, and several more non-Iranian Iranians, have always been hostile with the central government. In the west, Pushtun tribesmen from Afghanistan, along with fellow Pushtuns from Iran, are battling the police and border guards, in order to keep lucrative drug smuggling operations going. No accusations of American help here. It's all about business. But it's the same with the Baluchis (smuggling), Arabs (they sit on all the oil) and Kurds (smuggling and separatism).

 

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