India-Pakistan: Too Many Ways To Die


September 20, 2010: Police in eastern India continue their search for Maoist camps, raiding those they find and capturing weapons, equipment and documents. Maoist security is usually good enough that the camp inhabitants get away before the security personnel arrive, but not always. These operations are an endurance contest. If the special police force can keep it up long enough, the Maoists will be crippled and fade away. The anti-Maoist offensive is already a year old, and government claims to have regained control over 10,000 square kilometers of territory. The government believes it will take another three years of effort to defeat the Maoists. This will allow $80 billion of business investments to go ahead in previously Maoist infested areas. Maoist terrorism currently discourages that kind of investment. The government is also setting up schools, colleges and clinics in the previously Maoist controlled areas.

In Indian Kashmir, despite stringent curfews and travel restrictions, hundreds still manage to hold violent demonstrations. India blames inflammatory TV broadcasts from Pakistan and Iran. The Iranian broadcasts have aroused the Shia minority (about ten percent of the population) to attack a Christian village. Normally the Kashmiri Shia have nothing to do with the Islamic terrorists, as the Shia do not want to be part of Pakistan (where anti-Shia violence is common.) Most of the violence is from the two million Sunni Moslems in the province of 11 million. About 105 have died in the last three months, most of them young men throwing rocks at the security forces. Meanwhile, many of the 500,000 police and soldiers in Kashmir continue to seek out and fight Islamic terrorists hiding out in rural areas.

A tribal dispute in northwest Pakistan (Kurram) has caused over three hundred casualties in the last three weeks. The dispute is over real estate and access to water, and the army is trying to stop the fighting between the Mengal and Turi tribes.

In north Waziristan, an American UAV used a missile to kill five Islamic terrorists. This is the 14th such attack this month.

Despite continued Taliban (both Afghan and Pakistani) threats of terror attacks in the West, the two branches of the Taliban have little overseas capability. While the Afghan Taliban have access to a lot of cash from the drug gangs, they have no formal network of terrorists overseas. The Pakistani Taliban have terrorists training camps, but these are mainly to prepare their own people to carry out attacks inside Pakistan or India. Some foreigners are trained, and then advised to return home and try to organize an attack. These efforts have largely failed.

The UN has gathered pledges of $2 billion dollars in relief and rehabilitation for 14 million Pakistanis. This is to be applied over the next year. Most donors are anxious about how much of the aid will be stolen by local officials.

September 19, 2010:  A gunman on a motorcycle fired on a tourist bus near the Jama Masjid in New Delhi, India. Two Taiwanese tourists were wounded. Later, a car near the Jama Masjid was set on fire by a homemade bomb. Police blamed local gangs, but Islamic terror group, the Indian Mujahideen, took credit for both attacks and promised more, in an effort to disrupt the Commonwealth Games that begin on October 3rd.

In eastern India (Bihar), villagers fought off 150 armed Maoists, and two villagers were killed.

In Karachi, Pakistan, six men were killed in political violence. The dead included a Christian and a Shia. This was believed related to the recent murder of an exiled Pakistani politician (and leader of a major Pakistani political party) in London, UK. Many Pakistani politicians operate from foreign bases, because they are wanted on corruption, or other, charges back home.

September 18, 2010: In northwest Pakistan (Kurram), a large group of Afghan Islamic terrorists from the Haqqani network attacked a village, leaving 40 tribesmen and 20 Haqqani  members dead. The Haqqani network is an ally of the Taliban. The Haqqani network, an Islamic radical group long supported by Pakistani intelligence (ISI). The Haqqani network mainly operates in Afghanistan, but has used its muscle in Pakistan as well. The Pakistani security forces say they are finding and destroying Haqqani bases. But this is mostly for show, and Pakistani intelligence (ISI) has persuaded the army to leave the main Haqqani bases alone.  Haqqani  people are largely in the Orakzai area (which is south of the Khyber Pass, an 1,800 square kilometers patch of mountains inhabited by 450,000 tribals). The Haqqani crew are largely Afghans, who fled the country after losing to the Taliban in a civil war 15 years ago. Haqqani fighters were, and still are, Islamic radicals, and the Pakistanis have long seen them as a useful competitor to keep the Taliban in check. All this border politics with Islamic radicals is a Pakistani attempt to keep things quiet ("under control") in Afghanistan. This strategy has not worked, but the Pakistanis don't want to admit it, and protection for Haqqani & Company continues. The U.S. believes almost all the terrorist violence in eastern Afghanistan is caused by the Haqqani network. The Haqqani network often get into disputes with local tribes that results in battles.

 September 16, 2010: In eastern India (Jharkhand) a territorial dispute between two Maoist factions led to a gun battle, in which several Maoists were wounded. Police soon arrived and the Maoists fled.

September 15, 2010: In north Waziristan, an American UAV used a missile to kill several Islamic terrorists. Another attack was made on a  Haqqani network base.

September 14, 2010: In eastern India, Maoists blew up a section of track in Bihar. The Maoists were trying to enforce a two day strike.





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