India-Pakistan: June 7, 2002


India feels (based on radio monitoring of rebel radio conversations) that Pakistan has ordered the army and border guard to not allow rebels to cross from Pakistani to Indian Kashmir. But Pakistan still refuses to turn over the 20 rebel leaders that India has brought criminal charges against and are thought to be living in Pakistan. The Indians feel they are in a poor position. Pakistan is making war on India through it's support of the Islamic militants operating in Indian Kashmir, and India itself. As long as Pakistan does that, India's only recourse is war against Pakistan, and even that would be certain to solve the problem. India would have to install a new government in Pakistan. But the establishment of a Moslem government in a united Kashmir (the only majority Moslem state in India) is very popular Moslem majority Pakistan. Both nations have nuclear weapons, so any conquest of Pakistan would risk the use of nuclear weapons. While that would not be the end of the world, millions would die. The only good to come out of that would be more willingness by the world's nations (especially Europe) to use force to halt the spread of nuclear weapons to more countries. 

Shelling and gun fire across the Line of Control continues, leaving three civilians dead in Indian Kashmir. 

On Pakistan's Afghan border, army troops continue to negotiate permission with local tribes to seek out Taliban and al Qaeda. Like the American Special Forces, the Pakistanis are using money to convince tribal chiefs to all troops in these areas. In most of these areas, the Pakistani areas have never operated. The job is somewhat easier because a disproportionate number of soldiers and officers in the Pakistani army are Pushtun, the same ethnic group as the tribes on the Afghan border.  


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