India-Pakistan: April 4, 2000


: Intelligence analysts are convinced that Pakistan is on the verge of provoking another war with India in the Kargil sector of Kashmir. The objective of the war would be to terrify the world that nuclear conflict is about to break out and to force India to accept binding international mediation. Some indications that a conflict is likely this spring: 

@ Border skirmishes and shelling have reached new levels of intensity.

@ Hundreds, perhaps more than a thousand, of heavily-trained Islamic mercenaries are massed in Pakistani-controlled areas of Kashmir.

@ Pakistani troops withdrawn from the border to ease tensions are back in place.

@ The ISI (Pakistani intelligence) has recently held a meeting in Afghanistan between the leaders of the main pro-Pakistani groups in Kashmir, including: Karkat-al-Mujahiddin, Lashkar-i-Taba, al-Badr, and Fedayeen.

@ Pakistan is training two entire divisions in high-altitude mountain operations.

@ Pakistan has placed huge orders for winter combat gear and skis.

@ Pakistan's new missile base and numerous underground aircraft shelters are being finished.--Stephen V Cole


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