India-Pakistan: Terrorized Terrorists Run For Cover


November 8, 2010: The American UAV offensive against Islamic terrorist leaders in northwest Pakistan has driven some of the enemy to seek safety just across the border in Afghanistan. So far this year, there have been 97 U.S. missile attacks in Pakistan, compared to 53 in all of 2009 and 35 in 2008. Over 90 percent of this year's attacks have been in North Waziristan, where many Taliban and al Qaeda have long been based. The Pakistani Army has refused American requests that the area be cleared of hostile forces. Many in the Pakistani military and counter-terrorism establishment consider these Islamic terrorists as a useful tool to maintain some control in Afghanistan, and as a weapon against India. But the American missile attacks have made life increasingly risky for the terrorist leadership, and the easiest place to run to is just across the border. The American UAVs can still strike there, but the strategy appears to be to get away from the spies and informers among the tribesmen in North Waziristan. The tribes across the border are more hostile, and have a ceasefire with the Haqqani Network, which regularly moves men from North Waziristan to make attacks in Afghanistan. But the U.S. doesn't just rely on tribal informants for targeting information. There are also lots of electronic eavesdropping and sensors (various types of vidcams and special cameras) along with data mining tools. It will soon become apparent if you can run and hide. There are other problems for Haqqani, as the tribes just across the border tend to be Shia. While a minority of Pushtuns are Shia, they do not get along with Islamic radicals like al Qaeda, Taliban or Haqqani, because all three of these consider Shia heretics.

While the Pakistanis refuse to attack in North Waziristan, they are still chasing down Taliban in nearby areas. Between that, and continued unrest in the southwest (Baluchistan) there are several hundred casualties a week in Pakistan, making it nearly as violent as Afghanistan.

Pakistan is making yet another attempt to curb rampant corruption among government officials. This time, the anti-corruption effort will be monitored by the intelligence agencies (especially ISI) to prevent corruption among the anti-corruption officials. While ISI has long harbored Islamic radical sympathizers, the radicals justify their use of violence as part of an effort to eliminate corruption. Despite that, many believe that ISI contains corruption prone Islamic radicals (which exist in large numbers). Few Pakistanis expect the new anti-corruption drive to be much more successful than previous efforts. India is also pressuring the United States, which gives Pakistan billions of dollars a year in economic and military aid, to put more pressure on the Pakistanis to stop supporting Islamic terror groups trying to carry out attacks in India. The Pakistanis deny they are doing so, but the evidence says otherwise.

In eastern India (Bihar state), Maoists blew up a section of track and derailed a freight train. The Maoists have called for a nationwide protest to the visit of the U.S. president, but most Indians are celebrating the event. So the Maoists will amp up their usual violence to try and compensate for this lack of hostility.

India is also pressuring Nepal to investigate claims that Nepalese Maoists (who are a large political party there, and still have a large militia) have been providing bases and combat training for Indian Maoists.

November 7, 2010: In North Waziristan, the Taliban publicly executed three men accused of spying for the United States. These killings are a regular occurrence in the area, but the Americans continue to find their targets. The accusations and executions are often off the mark, which just increases local hatred for the Islamic radicals, who are basically ruling  by fear.

November 5, 2010: In northwest Pakistan, two mosques used by anti-Taliban militias were bombed by Islamic terrorists. Over 70 people were killed. The government supports these militia, which provide local security and make it difficult for the Taliban to operate in the tribal territories. These terror attacks, especially at mosques, are one of the things that makes the Taliban so unpopular. But sometimes the terror works.

November 3, 2010: Two retired Pakistani army generals were accused to taking $1.5 million in bribes, while they were managing military purchasing contracts.




Help Keep Us From Drying Up

We need your help! Our subscription base has slowly been dwindling.

Each month we count on your contributions. You can support us in the following ways:

  1. Make sure you spread the word about us. Two ways to do that are to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
  2. Subscribe to our daily newsletter. We’ll send the news to your email box, and you don’t have to come to the site unless you want to read columns or see photos.
  3. You can contribute to the health of StrategyPage.
Subscribe   Contribute   Close