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About Areas That Could Break Out Into War
August 9, 2008: The lights have gone out, literally. Over
half a century of poor maintenance and neglect, the power grid of the Central
African Republic has collapsed. The capital has gone dark. Two nearby hydroelectric
power stations, which provide most of the nation's electricity, have failed
from years of neglect. The government is calling on foreign aid donors to fly
in generators for hospitals and other essential services. Generators that have
been brought in previously have not been maintained, and wear out quickly. This
is not an exceptional event, for colonial era infrastructure, from roads to
power plants, are collapsing from decades of post-independence neglect. This
causes more unrest, as factions battle for a dwindling supply of resources.
August 7, 2008: The
Central African Republic's northern and north-eastern areas continue to be used
by Chadian and Sudanese rebel groups as a route for moving personnel and
equipment. That's one reason the UN labels the CAR's security situation as
"fragile." There are others, including claims that CAR soldiers have joined
some of the "northern bandits" in raiding villages. In February and March
several Lords Resistance Army bands (LRA, the Ugandan rebels) moved into the
CAR and raided several towns and villages in the country's southeast (including
the towns of Obo and Bambouti). Five months later there is renewed concern that
the CAR could become a "new front" in Uganda 's war with the LRA.
The CAR's internal
political situation is another reason. In late June that looked a bit more
hopeful. On June 26 the CAR government announced a "comprehensive peace
agreement" had been reached with the two major insurgent groups, The Popular Army for the Restoration of the
Republic and Democracy (APRD) and the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity
(UFDR). Both the CAR government and
France saw that deal as a major step forward. . The negotiations had been
fostered by France and the United Nations.
On July 1 the CAR
government even agreed to let former president Ange-Felix Patasse participate
in the amnesty process. At the time there was talk of a national unity
government following a "national dialog" (also called a reconciliation
conference in one forum). Patasse has been living in exile in Togo . Now that
may be on hold as well, for on August 2 the APRD announced that it was "leaving
the peace process." On August 3 the UFDR followed it as did the Democratic
Front for the Central African People (FDPC). Other opposition parties then
quit. The big problem for the guerrilla groups has been the amnesty agreement
the government has touted. The APRD is
demanding a general amnesty and release of prisoners. Former rebels -who are
not guilty of war crimes - may join the CAR Army. The APRD accuses the
government of reneging on these key elements of the amnesty.
The June 26
comprehensive peace agreement isn't quite dead, but it's close. The UN does not
want Chad and Sudan 's Sahel War to expand. Look for French and EU diplomats to
try and bring the rebels and opposition parties back. That said, the APRD and the UFDR have been fighting an
"intermittent insurgency" since 2003 and they can go right back to the bush and
start shooting anytime.
