October 8,
2008: After nearly a decade of political
bickering in both Taiwan and the United States, the Taiwanese government has
officially asked for a $6.5 billion dollars in weapons, and the U.S. has agreed
to deliver. The delays have had many causes. In Taiwan, there were local
politicians against buying all that stuff because it was so expensive (and many
Taiwanese believed that the U.S. would defend the island for free), or because
there was fear that China would impair Taiwanese investments (nearly $50
billion dollars worth) on the mainland. On the U.S. side, there was sometimes
reluctance to upset China. As a result, the sale has been put off since the
late 1990s,
Meanwhile,
Taiwan, increasingly anxious about China's military buildup, boosted its
defense spending by about 15 percent this year (to $10.5 billion). Taiwan is
buying anti-missile missiles and anti-submarine aircraft (U.S. P-3Cs). China
spends four times as much on defense, to support about two million troops.
Taiwan has only 350,000 troops, and a population of 23 million, compared to 1.3
billion on the mainland. Taiwans's GPD is $650 billion, compared to $2.7
trillion for China. Thus the per capital income of Taiwan is more than ten
times that of the mainland. Taiwans military is based on the American model,
with an emphasis on quality. China based its military on the Soviet model
(where quantity has a quality all its own), although for decades the emphasis
was on mobilizing a huge force of guerillas. Now China is trying to develop a
force that can fight on Western terms (high tech operated by well trained
troops.)
It's this
new Chinese attitude that has galvanized Taiwan to complete the long delayed
purchases from the United States. While many Taiwanese still see the United
States as the ultimate guarantor of Taiwanese independence, they see China as
increasingly capable of grabbing the island before the U.S. can intervene. So
while the Taiwanese don't have to be strong enough to defeat a Chinese
invasion, they do have to be strong enough to hold the Chinese back until
American reinforcements can show up.
Thus about
half the $6.5 billion package is for PAC-3 Patriot anti-missile missiles. These
can knock down many of the 1,300 Chinese ballistic missiles aimed at the
island. Taiwanese military planners have put themselves in the position of
their Chinese counterparts, and noted that this many missiles could severely
damage Taiwanese defenses, and do it very quickly. The other big weapon systems
are AH-64D Apache helicopter gunships, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Javelin
anti-tank missiles. There is also half a billion dollars in upgrades, and spare
parts, for existing warplanes.
The Chinese
were very open, and loud, in their displeasure over this sale. Now their
opportunity to grab Taiwan quickly is slipping away again.
