October 14, 2005: The F-35 (formerly JSF, or Joint Strike Fighter)
has seen it?s development costs go from $19 billion to $26 billion in
the last five years. That?s not as disastrous as it sounds, for there
are still plans to produce some 1800 F-35s (for American and allied air
forces.) Back in 2001, there were plans to produce close to 3,000
F-35s, but times have changed, and not as many are needed. For a
modern, stealthy aircraft, the F-35 is not all that expensive. Not
counting the development costs, each aircraft will cost between $35
million and $50 million. That?s pretty reasonable these days. Back in
2001, the development costs would add maybe $7 million to the cost of
each aircraft. But now, that ?R&D? (research and development)
surcharge has doubled.
A major reason for the decline in demand for the F-35 is not rising
costs, but smart bombs. It?s easier to deliver the new generation of
satellite guided smart bombs via a heavy bomber (like the half century
old B-52), than via the latest fighter-bomber. However, in the opening
stages of a war, when the enemy still has some effective air defense
weapons, sending in stealthy F-35s is a much safer, and certain, way to
go. But even that appears to be old-school, with more capable UAVs
entering service. Why risk an F-35 and a pilot, when you can send in
unmanned aircraft. Then you can bring in the ?bomb trucks? (B-52, B-1,
B-2) to deliver the smart bombs. For these reasons, many believe the
F-35 will be the last manned combat aircraft. Not because of the high
cost, but because robots do it better.
