Wars Update: Violence Continues To Decline

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January 1, 2010: Violence continues to decline worldwide. Oddly enough, the most bloody conflicts (like Congo) get the least media coverage. Reporting tends to be distorted by the need to attract eyeballs, and revenue. For years, Iraq was portrayed as a disaster until, suddenly, the enemy was crushed. Even that was not considered exciting enough to warrant much attention, and that story is still poorly covered by the mass media. Same pattern is playing out in Afghanistan, where the defeats of the Taliban, and triumph of the drug gangs, go unreported or distorted. If you step back and take a look at all the wars going on, a more accurate picture emerges.

Worldwide, violence continues to decline, as it has for most of the decade. For example, violence has greatly diminished,  or disappeared completely, in places like  Iraq,  Nepal,  Haiti,  Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, ChechnyaCongo, Indonesia and Burundi. Even Afghanistan, touted as the new war zone, was not nearly as violent this past six months as the headlines would deceive you into believing.

All this continues a trend that began when the Cold War ended, and the Soviet Union no longer subsidized terrorist and rebel groups everywhere. The current wars are basically uprisings against police states or feudal societies, which are seen as out-of-step with the modern world. Many are led by radicals preaching failed dogmas (Islamic conservatism, Maoism), that still resonate among people who don't know about the dismal track records of these creeds. Iran has picked up some of the lost Soviet terrorist support effort. That keeps Hezbollah, Hamas, and a few smaller groups going, and that's it. Terrorists in general miss the Soviets, who really knew how to treat bad boys right.

The War on Terror  has morphed into the War Against Islamic Radicalism. This religious radicalism has always been around, for Islam was born as an aggressive movement, that used violence and terror to expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems. The current enthusiasm for violence in the name of God has been building  for over half a century. Historically, periods of Islamic radicalism have flared up periodically in response to corrupt governments, as a vain attempt to impose a religious solution on some social or political problem. The current violence is international because of the availability of planet wide mass media (which needs a constant supply of headlines), and the fact that the Islamic world is awash in tyranny and economic backwardness. Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of mustering much military power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to gain attention. Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the radicals eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run out of new recruits and fade away. This is what is happening now. The American invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the Islamic radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems, especially women and children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose their popularity among Moslems.  

Normally, the West does not get involved in these Islamic religious wars, unless attacked in a major way. Moreover, modern sensibilities have made that more difficult. For example, fighting back is considered, by Moslems, as culturally insensitive ("war on Islam"), and some of the Western media have picked up on this bizarre interpretation of reality.  It gets worse. Historians point out, for example, that the medieval Crusades were a series of wars fought in response to Islamic violence against Christians, not the opening act of aggression against Islam that continues to the present. Thus, the current war on terror is, indeed, in the tradition of the Crusades. And there are many other "Crusades" brewing around the world, in the many places where aggressive Islamic  militants are making unprovoked war on their Christian neighbors. Political Correctness among academics and journalists causes pundits to try and turn this reality inside out. But a close look at the violence in Africa, Asia and the Middle East shows a definite pattern of Islamic radicals persecuting those who do not agree with them, not the other way around.

While Islamic terrorism grabs most of the headlines, it is not the cause of many casualties, at least not compared to more traditional wars. The vast majority of the military related violence and deaths in the world comes from many little wars that get little media attention outside their region. Actually some of them are not so little. While causalities from terrorism are relatively few (usually 5,000-10,000 dead a year worldwide), the dead and wounded from all the other wars actually comprise about 95 percent of all the casualties. The Islamic terrorism looms larger because the terrorists threaten attacks everywhere, putting a much larger population in harms way, and unhappy with that prospect. But in the West, and most Moslem nations, Islamic terrorism remains more of a threat than reality.

Current wars are listed in alphabetical orders. Text underneath briefly describes current status. Click on country name for more details. 

AFGHANISTAN

The "Taliban comeback" keeps getting headlines in the media. But it's the Taliban who are increasingly under attack. There hasn't been a  "Taliban Spring Offensive" for the last two years, and the key Taliban financial resource; heroin in Helmand province, in now under attack. The Taliban expected drug gang profits, al Qaeda assistance and Pakistani reinforcements to turn the tide. But al Qaeda is a very junior, and unpopular, partner, and the Pakistani Taliban are sending refugees, not reinforcements. With all that, violence nationwide was up, mainly because there are more foreign troops in the country, being more aggressive against the Taliban and drug gangs. Foreign troops lost 295 dead in combat during 2008, and that increased 76 percent, to 519, in 2009. That's about half the casualty rate for foreign troops in Iraq during the peak year of 2007. Like Iraq, the violence in concentrated in a few small areas (in the south). Independent minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace,  prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (on both sides of the Pakistan border). The newly elected Pakistani government finally decided to take on the pro-Taliban tribes and various Islamic terrorist organizations. That reversed the flow of gunmen from Pakistan into Afghanistan, with the Pakistani Taliban calling for help from their Afghan cousins. But violence inside Afghanistan is growing, largely because of the growth of the drug gangs, and their support for tribes (especially pro-Taliban ones) that oppose the corrupt national government. The foreign nations, fighting their war on terror in Afghanistan, have finally realized that there has never been an Afghan national government that was not corrupt, and changing that is going to be more difficult than fighting the Taliban or finding bin Laden.

ALGERIA

There are few Islamic radicals left in Algeria, with most of them dead, or run off to Europe, or south into the desert and across the southern borders into Black Africa. Despite the large amount of uninhabited mountains and forests along the eastern coast, the police and army have been operating there for so long that it's difficult to stay hidden. Too many civilians are hostile to Islamic radicalism, and will phone in a tip. Algeria has become a very dangerous place for Islamic terrorists. But some fight on, but at lower and lower violence levels. Peace has brought with it despair, as Algerians realize that their government is basically a corrupt military dictatorship that uses the national oil wealth to buy enough votes to get elected again and again. So more Algerians are fleeing, or vacillating between despair and a desire to fight.

BALKANS  

Corruption, crime, and the pursuit of past glories continues to be the main cause of violence here. For example, the Greater Albania Movement is driven by part time Albanian nationalists, full time gangsters, and persistent political opportunists, Kosovo separatists and some Islamic radicals. West Europeans got their way, and Kosovo became independent. Serbia disagrees with that, and Big Brother Russia offers all manner of support, and threats. But no one is willing to resume the war, yet. No one is willing to renounce war as an option, either. Bosnia continues to attract Islamic terrorists, despite the local government becoming increasingly hostile to these foreign troublemakers and alien Islamic conservatism. Moldova continues to muddle and Bulgaria and Romania continue to fight corruption, and lose.

CENTRAL ASIA

Dictators brew rebellion by suppressing democrats, Islamic radicals and anyone else who objects to strongman rule. Not much violence, just a lot of potential. The dictators in the "Stans" (the former provinces of the Soviet Union that became five independent nations; Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan) have been rebuilding the Soviet era secret police. The new dictators noted that the Soviets never had any problems with Islamic terrorism, or any other kind of terrorism, and are going old school on this new problem.

CHAD

Chad and Sudan have scaled back on their support for each others rebels, and now the biggest problem along the border are the bandits, who prey on the refugees and the foreign aid workers. In the recent past, Chadian rebel movements grew and united, aided by Sudanese backed Arab militias from across the border. The Chad government gave refuge to Sudanese Darfur rebels. Despite all that, the government made peace with Sudan, but not with their own rebels, who have united and vowed to win. European peacekeepers arrived, but lacking sufficient manpower and helicopters, were unable to do much, and have been replaced with UN peacekeepers. The unrest along the Sudan border is caused by refugees from tribal battles in Sudan, who bring their feuds with them. Prospects for peace are not good, and no one will send enough peacekeepers to calm things down.

CHINA

The confrontation with Taiwan continues to subside, replaced by kind words and gracious lies, along with increases in trade and commerce. Taiwan buys more arms and  China speeds up modernization of its armed forces, but in ways Westerners have a difficult time understanding. China has developed a major Cyber War capability, and has been using it for several years. The targets of this, in Western Europe and the U.S., have figured this out, and a new crises is born. China has become major secret supplier of cheap weapons to bad guys everywhere. World class weapons are planned for the future, some 10-20 years from now.

COLOMBIA

After over three decades, leftist rebels more rapidly losing support, recruits and territory.  The drug gangs and leftist rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and war in increasingly about money, not ideology. The leftist rebels are definitely fading, but all that drug money will keep them in the game for quite a while. Alarmed at this, leftist demagogue Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has increased his support for the Colombian rebels, and their cocaine producing allies. Chavez is also spending several billion dollars a year on new weapons (mostly Russian) and warning everyone that he is about to be invaded by the United States and Colombia. This is mainly to disarm internal critics, upset at how Chavez has trashed the Venezuelan economy and democracy.

CONGO

Multiple tribal and political militias, plus an increasing number of bandits, continue to roam the countryside, perpetuating the bloodiest (and least reported) war of the last decade (over five million dead, and counting). Peacekeeper and army action have reduced the size of these violent groups, but not eliminated them.  However, there are fewer places that the bad guys can roam freely. Attempts to merge rebels into the army has not worked well. The last major problem is a Tutsi militia in the east, which will not disarm until the government destroys Hutu militias built around Hutu mass murderers who fled neighboring Rwanda in the 1990s. This the Congolese government finds it cannot (and to a certain extent, will not) do. The reason is money, the millions of dollars available each year to whoever has gunmen controlling the mines that extract valuable ores and allow the stuff out of the country. UN peacekeepers are criticized for not fighting more, but that??s not their job. Congolese army not up to it yet either, so there it simmers, with the rebels slowly losing strength month, by month.

ETHIOPIA

Border dispute with Eritrea festers, and rebellion by ethnic Somalis in Ogaden province persists. There's oil in Ogaden, and that has caused the Ethiopians to be brutal to the rebels. Ethiopian troops are still active along the Somali border, as a warning to any Somali groups that might be tempted to move into Ogaden. The peacekeepers in Somalia were withdrawn a year ago. Ethiopia is accustomed to dealing with the Somalis, something the rest of the world should study more closely. Internally, rebellious Moslem groups are a constant threat, especially with more active support from Eritrea. 

HAITI

Technically at peace. Peacekeepers keep a lid on two century old violence between the rich and the poor, and the criminal and political gangs. Peacekeepers have busted up many of the gangs, and sharply lowered the crime rate. But the government is still corrupt and prone to breed lawbreakers and disorder. Same pattern of poverty and corruption that has sustained chaos for the past two centuries. No good prospects of breaking the cycle are in sight.

INDIA-PAKISTAN

After the Mumbai terrorist attacks in late 2008, India is pressured Pakistan to quit playing media games, and get serious about anti-Indian Islamic terrorists. This caused a struggle within the Pakistani government, over how to deal with Islamic radicalism. Meanwhile, India has to deal with religious separatists in Kashmir, plus tribal rebels in the northeast, and Maoist (communist) ones in between. Pakistan has Islamic radicals in the north, and rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along the Afghan border.  The Taliban had become stronger in Pakistan, where it originated, than in Afghanistan.  The newly elected Pakistani government tried to make peace with the Taliban and when that failed, invaded the Taliban heartland during the Summer. The Taliban were beat up pretty bad, and the number of terrorist attacks increased in response. Most of these were in the tribal areas, but the Pakistanis are being forced to confront the Islamic demons they have created. India and Pakistan both have nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result, recent peace talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides continue an arms race.  Pakistan has always been a mess, and does not appear to be getting better. But at least it's becoming less hospitable to Islamic radicals. Even those Islamic terrorists who concentrate on attacking India, are being hammered. There are still many Pakistanis, including government officials, who back Islamic radicalism. Pakistan has a way to go in dealing with that deamon.

INDONESIA

Basically at peace, but separatism, pirates, Islamic terrorists and government corruption create a volatile situation that could get hot real fast. Islamic terrorists have been greatly diminished, as Islamic moderates flex their traditional popularity. Aceh still has a few diehard separatist rebels. Newly independent East Timor has been unable to govern itself. 

IRAN

Popular unrest has increased, and become more violent, over the last year. The basic problem is that an Islamic conservative minority has veto power over the reformist majority. The supply of peaceful solutions is drying up. After that comes another revolution. There are some more complications. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities (mainly Turks and Arabs), and these groups are getting more restive and violent. Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to support terrorism overseas and build nuclear weapons at home, rather than improving the economy and living standards. Unrest and terrorist violence are becoming more common, and government seeks foreign adventures to distract an unhappy population. That is not working, and the recent slump in oil prices is creating more poverty, and young men desperate for a solution.

IRAQ

Islamic terrorists are now a police problem. U.S. troops have withdrawn to suburban bases, and casualties are half what they were last year (U.S. deaths declined from 314 to 150, which is way down from the 2007 peak of 904). Violence continues to be down over 80 percent from the bad old days of three years ago. More areas of the country are now at peace (as some have been since 2003.) The Sunni Arab minority has worked out peace deals with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. But some Sunni Arab Islamic radicals are still active, supported by Sunni Arab nationalists in the Persian Gulf, and former Saddam supporters in Syria. Some Sunni Arabs, who had fled the country, are returning, but nearly half the Sunni Arabs are still gone. The Shia militias have been defeated as well, mainly by Iraqi police and troops. Corruption and inept government are now the major problems, with potential Iranian meddling (or even invasion) a permanent threat.  The major U.S. TV news operations are pulling out. The war is really over.

ISRAEL

Hamas continues to preach endless war against Israel, while trying to negotiate a ceasefire with Israel. Some Palestinians keep trying to make any kind of peace, in order to reverse the economic disaster they brought on themselves because of their decade old terror campaign against Israel.   Polls show that Palestinians are tired of terrorism, even though they still support it (in order to destroy Israel, which remains an article of faith in the Palestinian community). The Palestinian economy has collapsed, as a major component, foreign charity was reduced because the people elected the Hamas (Islamic terrorists) party to power. Civil war between radical Hamas and corrupt Palestinian old guard (Fatah) has split Palestinians. Long time Arab allies are giving up on the Palestinians, who seem to have abandoned any meaningful attempt to make peace with Israel. Iran backed Islamic radicals (Hezbollah) in Lebanon have revived fears of civil war up there. Hezbollah threatens to drag  Lebanon into another civil war, or another  war with Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli economy booms as Israel continues its effective counter-terrorism campaign. This annoys Arabs most of all.

IVORY COAST

An uneasy truce continues. The north and the south made a deal over money, religion and power, but cannot agree on how, or when, to carry it out. All this is watched over by  peacekeepers set up between the factions. A case of peacekeeping creating a situation where there is no war, but no solution to the conflict either.

KOREA

The  illness (a stroke) of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has created a struggle over who his heir will be. Growing unrest, corruption and privation continue to weaken the iron control that has long kept the north peaceful. North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain armed forces capable of invading South Korea and keep its own population in bondage. Continued famine in the north has prompted China to send more and more troops to the border to keep hungry North Koreas out. North Korean military declines in power, as lack of money for maintenance or training cause continuing rot. Government split into reform and conservative factions, making change difficult to achieve. South Koreans are growing tired of the madness that still reigns in the north, but cannot do much. However, it's become clear that political collapse in the north is now a matter of when, not if.

KURDISH WAR

Turkish forces continue to battle Kurdish separatists, or push their bases further into Iraq. Iraqi Kurds have agreed to crack down on the PKK separatists the Turks have been fighting for over a decade. Kurds continue 5,000 year struggle to form their own country. Iran is cracking down on its Kurds, in cooperation with Turkey. Even Syria is going after Kurdish separatists among its Kurdish minority. Iraqi Kurds believe they will get control of some Iraqi oil fields, providing cash for all manner of opportunities. But that is opposed by Iraqi Arabs and other minorities, not to mention Turkey.

MEXICO

The U.S. border is like a war zone. The passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing corruption in the security forces, has triggered unprecedented levels of violence and unrest. The government has gone to war with the drug gangs, and the outcome is still in doubt.

MYANMAR (Burma)

Decades of low level fighting against ethnic separatists in the north has resulted, in the last year, in major victories for the government. Not a lot of fighting, but major movements by Burmese troops into separatist areas that were long outside the control of the government. Over 100,000 ethnic Chinese separatists have fled across the border into China (annoying the Chinese government). Tribal separatists continue to flee into Thailand. The half century old military government remains entrenched in power, even as its status as an international pariah grows.

NEPAL

Radical communist rebels succeed in eliminating the monarchy, via an alliance with other political parties. Maoists then won control of the government, but refuse to completely disarm their private army. Maoists then quit the government, when they could not get their way. All this has triggered more violence by other unhappy groups (more radical Maoists, hill tribes, ethnic Indians), along with a newly organized of "Young Maoist" street thugs.

NIGERIA

Too many tribes, not enough oil money and too much corruption created growing  violence, until the government sold the ethnic oil gangs and rebels  in the oil producing region (the Niger Delta) on an amnesty deal. While the gangs were getting organized, and a lot more violent, the government was moving more police and military forces into the region. The amnesty deal may not hold, but it has reduced attacks on oil facilities. Meanwhile, the northern Moslems want more control over the federal government (and the oil money).  The situation is still capable of sliding into regional civil wars, over money and political power.

POTENTIAL HOT SPOTS

Various places where the local situation is warming up and might turn into a war. Zimbabwe, and Central African Republic are hot right now. But in both cases, the violence has been low level.

PHILIPPINES

Islamic minority in the south wants its own country, and the expulsion of non-Moslems. Communist rebels in the north fight for social justice and a dictatorship. Both of these movements are losing and the Moslems are negotiating a peace deal that inches closer to a done deal. The communists are taking a beating, and playing hard to get. But the Moslems have, as always, lots of clan feuds and internal violence.

RUSSIA  

Rebuilding and reforming the decrepit Soviet era armed forces continues. The war against gangsters and Islamic radicals in Chechnya has been won, but the Islamic radicals continue to operate in other parts of the Caucasus.  Russia returns to police state ways, and traditional threatening attitude towards neighbors. Despite last year's drop in oil (and other raw materials) prices, Russian rearmament efforts continue. They have to, because the Cold War era stuff is wearing out fast. It's either new stuff, or nothing that works anymore.

RWANDA & BURUNDI

Wars between better organized and more aggressive Tutsis and more numerous Hutu tribes have died down in both countries. It's been going on for centuries, but the latest installment has finally ended, with the last Hutu group in Burundi giving up, then changing its mind, but not making nearly as much trouble as in the past. Rwanda blamed for continuing violence in eastern Congo, as they attempt to destroy Hutu terrorists based there.

SOMALIA

Islamic radical groups increasingly fighting each other over the question of how "international" (pro-al Qaeda) they should be. Meanwhile, Somalia is a failed state that defies every attempt at nation building. It was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over  economic issues (land and water). The  new "transitional" government, was nearly wiped out by  an "Islamic Courts" movement (which attempted  to put the entire country under the rule of Islamic clergy and Islamic law). When Islamic Courts threatened to expand into Ethiopia, Ethiopia invaded and smashed the Islamic Courts. The Islamic radicals have turned to terrorism, which Eritrea continues to provide support for. The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight, until the pirates (which have been around for a decade) became a major problem. Now the major trading nations have to decide whether to occupy and administer (stamp out piracy) Somalia, or pay several billion dollars a year in ransom, insurance and security costs. No real enthusiasm for an occupation, despite the fact that the Somalis are beginning to export their violence.

SRI LANKA

This one is basically over, with the defeat of the LTTE earlier this year. Tamil minority (19th century economic migrants from southern India) battled long and hard to partition the island.  A long ceasefire ended and fighting resumed. Tamils (the LTTE)  lost decisively  this time. LTTE survivors threaten to return to terrorism and banditry, but not much of this has happened yet.

SUDAN

Moslems in the north try to suppress separatist tendencies among Christians in the south, and Moslem rebels in the east and west (non-Arab Darfur). All this is complicated by development of oil fields in the south, and Moslem government attempts to drive Christians from the oil region. Now the central government is trying to halt, or rig, the independence vote in the south (that the government agreed to allow). Meanwhile, battles over land in the west pit Arab herders against black Sudanese farmers. Both sides are Moslem, but the government is backing the Arabs. The government uses Arab nationalism and economic ties with Russia and China to defy the world and get away with driving non-Arab tribes from Darfur. Sudan is also an ally of Iran, and recipient of weapons and advice on how to best terrorize a population into submission. The government believes time is on its side, and that the West will never trying anything bold and effective to halt the violence. So far, the government has been proven right.

THAILAND  

Malay Moslems in the south are three percent of the population, and different.  Most Thais are ethnic Thais and Buddhist. In the south, however, Islamic radicalism has arrived, along with an armed effort to create a separate Islamic state in the three southern provinces. Islamic terrorists grew more powerful month by month for several years, and refuse to negotiate. Security forces persisted and are making progress in identifying and rounding up the terrorists. Meanwhile, civil war brews between urban and rural segments of the population, under the leadership of political parties that differ on how the nation should be run. The minority are elitist urbanite royalists, and they just overthrew an elected government via massive urban demonstrations. This struggle isn't over.

UGANDA

Religion and tribalism combine to create a persistent rebellion in the north, which was aided by Sudan. But now the northern rebels have been worn down, and largely chased from the country. The unrest is just about done with. Final peace deal with LRA rebels proved impossible to negotiate. Ugandan army got permission to enter Congo, and other countries, to try and finish the rebels off.

WAR ON TERROR

International terrorism has created a international backlash and a war unlike any other. These days, most terrorist victories are in the media. On the ground, the terrorists are losing ground everywhere. Their last refuges are chaotic, or cynical, places like Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Gaza, the Sahel, a few of the Philippine islands, and especially tribal regions of Pakistan (where al Qaeda is staging a well publicized last stand). They were chased out of Iraq (and replaced by diehard Saddam supporters),  Indonesia and the Philippines. Iran continues to support terrorism in the face of much local disapproval. Lebanon is in chaos because of Iranian subsidized factions. Gaza went the same way. Islamic radicals are a traditional reaction to tyranny in their region, and the inability of local despots to rule effectively. Economic and diplomatic ties with the West are interpreted as support for "un-Islamic" thought and behavior, leading to  attacks on Western targets that created a devastating counterattack. The result of this in the Moslem world has been dramatic, finally forcing leaders and people to confront their self-inflicted problems. Al Qaeda is as self-destructive as its many predecessors. Al Qaeda suicide bomb attacks that continue to kill civilians, continue to turn Moslems against al Qaeda in a big way. But the terrorists justify such dumb attacks because their doctrine holds that Moslems who don??t agree with them, are not really Moslems. You can imagine how well that goes over with the survivors, and the many potential victims. You can, but al Qaeda can??t, and that is what guarantees their demise. That will be well covered by the media, because the Islamic terror groups have learned how to play the media. Many "Islamic terrorists" help out, while safely on the sidelines, with media manipulation and producing propaganda. The Internet has made these efforts possible, and quite popular. Since all this is religion based, and Islam is a faith that calls for world conquest and violent intolerance of other faiths, you have a large pool of ambitious and murderous new recruits. Many Moslems insist they do not support the "world conquest" crowd, but few are willing to confront the maniacs head-on and denounce the killing on religious grounds. Islam has some internal problems that Moslems will have to deal with before all this unpleasantness goes away.

YEMEN

Decades old disagreement over the autonomy of Shia Arab tribes in the north finally led to the armed forces moving in to settle the matter once and for all. When the rebels sought to flee into Saudi Arabia, along with al Qaeda terrorists, the Saudis sent the military to seal the border and hammer the rebellious tribesmen. The battle continues.

 

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