Wars Update: Fighting Goes Out Of Fashion

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July 19, 2008:   While the mass media continues to feature wars and terrorism, the overall trend continues away from such unpleasantness. Such stories are anathema to the mass media, because they do not attract eyeballs, and revenue. That's the way people are, and the result is a distorted view of trends in global violence.

Worldwide, violence continues to decline, as it has for the last few years. Violence has also greatly diminished,  or disappeared completely, in places like  Iraq,  Nepal,  ChechnyaCongo, Indonesia and Burundi. Even Afghanistan, touted as the new war zone, is seeing less violence this year than last.

All this continues a trend that began when the Cold War ended, and the Soviet Union no longer subsidized terrorist and rebel groups everywhere. The current wars are basically uprisings against police states or feudal societies, which are seen as out-of-step with the modern world. Many are led by radicals preaching failed dogmas (Islamic conservatism, Maoism), that still resonate among people who don't know about the dismal track records of these movements. 

The War on Terror  has morphed into the War Against Islamic Radicalism. This religious radicalism has always been around, for Islam was born as an aggressive movement, that used violence and terror to expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems. The current enthusiasm for violence in the name of God has been building  for over half a century. Historically, periods of Islamic radicalism have flared up periodically in response to corrupt governments, as a vain attempt to impose a religious solution on some social or political problem. The current violence is international because of the availability of planet wide mass media (which needs a constant supply of headlines), and the fact that the Islamic world is awash in tyranny and economic backwardness. Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of mustering much military power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to gain attention. Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the radicals eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run out of new recruits and fade away. This is what is happening now. The American invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the Islamic radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems, especially women and children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose their popularity among Moslems.  

Normally, the West does not get involved in these Islamic religious wars, unless attacked in a major way. Moreover, modern sensibilities have made that more difficult. For example, fighting back is considered, by Moslems, as culturally insensitive ("war on Islam"), and some of the Western media have picked up on this bizarre interpretation of reality.  However, some historians like to point out, for example, that the medieval Crusades were a series of wars fought in response to Islamic violence against Christians, not the opening act of aggression against Islam that continue to the present. Thus, the current war on terror is, indeed, in the tradition of the Crusades. And there are many other "Crusades" brewing around the world, in the many places where aggressive Islamic  militants are making unprovoked war on their Christian neighbors. Political Correctness among academics and journalists causes pundits to try and turn this reality inside out. But a close look at the violence in Africa, Asia and the Middle East shows a definite pattern of Islamic radicals persecuting those who do not agree with them, not the other way around.

While Islamic terrorism grabs most of the headlines, it is not the cause of many casualties, at least not compared to more traditional wars. The vast majority of the military related violence and deaths in the world comes from many little wars that get little media attention outside their region. Actually some of them are not so little. While causalities from terrorism are relatively few (usually 5,000-10,000 dead a year worldwide), the dead and wounded from all the other wars actually comprise about 95 percent of all the casualties. The Islamic terrorism looms larger because the terrorists threaten attacks everywhere, putting a much larger population in harms way, and unhappy with that prospect. But in the West, and most Moslem nations, Islamic terrorism remains more of a threat than reality.

Current wars are listed in alphabetical orders. Text underneath briefly describes current status. Click on country name for more details. 

AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban attempt at a comeback has been reinforced by drug gang profits and al Qaeda choosing the Pakistani border area the location for their last stand. With all that, violence nationwide is still lower than last year.  A sharp increase in Taliban activity in 2006 brought forth a sharp response from government and NATO forces. Independent minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace,  prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (which is based across the border in Pakistan). The newly elected Pakistani government is reluctant to make on the pro-Taliban tribes and various Islamic terrorist organizations. That has increased the flow of gunmen from Pakistan into Afghanistan. But the violence inside Afghanistan is growing, largely because of the growth of the drug gangs, and their support for tribes (especially pro-Taliban ones) that oppose the national government.

ALGERIA

A few hundred Islamic rebels persist, despite the hostility of most Algerians. The local Islamic terrorists have now officially become a part of al Qaeda, and have turned to suicide bombing. This kills a lot of civilians, and increases the hatred the population already feels towards the Islamic radicals. The level of terrorist violence is still much lower than it was a few years ago. The population is not happy, and a general uprising remains a threat because of dissatisfaction with the old revolutionaries that refuse to honor election results, share power or govern effectively.

BALKANS  

The Greater Albania Movement is driven by part time Albanian nationalists, full time gangsters, political opportunists, Kosovo separatists and some Islamic radicals. West Europeans got their way, and Kosovo became independent. Serbia disagrees with that, and Big Brother Russia offers all manner of support, and threats. Bosnia continues to attract Islamic terrorists, despite the local government becoming increasingly hostile to these foreign troublemakers and alien Islamic conservatism.

CENTRAL ASIA

Dictators brew rebellion by suppressing democrats and Islamic radicals. But not much violence, just a lot of potential. 

CHAD

Rebel movements grew and united, aided by Sudanese backed Arab militias from across the border. The Chad government gave refuge to Sudanese Darfur rebels. The government thought they had a peace deal, but it quickly fell apart. European peacekeepers are arriving, but are having problems obtaining sufficient helicopters and air transport. Much of the unrest along the border is caused by refugees from tribal battles in Sudan, who bring their feuds with them. Prospects for peace are not good.

CHINA

The confrontation with Taiwan continues, as do hostilities with neighbors, separatists, dissenters and ancient enemies. A new government in Taiwan plays down independence, and China responds with soothing words. But also China speeds up modernization of its armed forces, but in ways Westerners have a difficult time understanding. China has developed a major Cyber War capability, and has been using it for over a year. The targets of this, in Western Europe and the U.S., have figured this out, and a new crises is born. China has become major secret supplier of cheap weapons to bad guys everywhere. World class weapons are planned for the future, some 10-20 years from now.

COLOMBIA

After over three decades, leftist rebels more rapidly losing support, recruits and territory. Even leftist demagogue Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has dropped support for the Colombian rebels, although he is still providing sanctuary for them and their cocaine producing allies. The drug gangs and leftist rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and war in increasingly about money, not ideology. The leftist rebels are definitly losing, but all that drug money will keep them in the game for quite a while.

CONGO

Multiple tribal and political militias, plus an increasing number of bandits, continue to roam the countryside. Peacekeepers and army action have reduced the size of these violent groups, but not eliminated them.  However, there are fewer places that the bad guys can roam freely. Attempts to merge rebels into the army has not worked well. The last major problem is a Tutsi militia in the east, which will not disarm until the government destroys Hutu militias built around Hutu mass murderers who fled neighboring Rwanda in the 1990s. UN peacekeepers criticized for not fighting more, but that's not their job. Congolese army not up to it yet either, so there it simmers.

ETHIOPIA

Border dispute with Eritrea festers, and invasion of Somalia bogs down in local clan feuds. Internally, rebellious Moslem groups are a constant threat, especially with more active support from Eritrea. Ogaden province, right on the Somali border, and full of ethnic Somalis, has rebelled again. Not a big deal, but one more hot spot that burns up troops and scarce cash. These two border wars have been around for centuries, and not likely to go away now.

HAITI

Peacekeepers keep a lid on two century old violence between the rich and the poor, and the criminal and political gangs. Peacekeepers have busted up many of the gangs, and sharply lowered the crime rate. But the government is still corrupt and prone to breed lawbreakers and disorder.

INDIA-PAKISTAN

Kashmir is but one of many rebellions that beset the region. India also has tribal and Islamic rebel in the northeast, and Maoist (communist) ones in between. Pakistan has Islamic radicals in the north, and rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along the Afghan border.  The Taliban had become stronger in Pakistan, where it originated, than in Afghanistan.  Newly elected Pakistani government wants to make peace with the Taliban and the Taliban is willing to pretend it is cooperating. India and Pakistan both have nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result, recent peace talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides continue an arms race. Pakistani Islamic radical groups continue to support terrorism in India and Afghanistan, and are still threatening the Pakistani government with attacks. Pakistan has always been a mess, and does not appear to be getting better.

INDONESIA

Basically at peace, but separatism, pirates, Islamic terrorists and government corruption create a volatile situation that could get hot real fast. Islamic terrorists have been greatly diminished, as Islamic moderates flex their traditional popularity. Aceh still has a few diehard separatist rebels. Newly independent East Timor has been unable to govern itself. 

IRAN

The basic problem is that an Islamic conservative minority  has veto power over the reformist majority. The supply of peaceful solutions is drying up. After that comes another revolution. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities (mainly Turks and Arabs), and these groups are getting more restive and violent. Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to support terrorism overseas and build nuclear weapons at home, rather than improving the economy and living standards. Unrest and terrorist violence becoming more common, and government seeks foreign adventures to distract an unhappy population.

IRAQ

The "surge offensive" last year capitalized on years of work, crushed the Islamic terrorists. Violence plunged by over 80 percent. More areas of the country are now at peace (as some have been since 2003.) The Sunni Arab minority has worked out peace deals with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. Some Sunni Arab Islamic radicals are still active, but are in decline. Some Sunni Arabs, who had fled the country, are returning, but nearly half the Sunni Arabs are already gone. The Shia militias have been defeated as well, mainly by Iraqi police and troops. Corruption and inept government continues to be a major problem.  

ISRAEL

Palestinians are trying to make some kind of peace, in order to reverse the economic disaster they brought on themselves because of their seven year terror campaign against Israel.   Palestinians are tired of terrorism, even though they still support it. The Palestinian economy has collapsed, as foreign charity dried up because the people elected the Hamas (Islamic terrorists) party to power. Civil war between radical Hamas and corrupt Palestinian old guard (Fatah) has split Palestinians. Iran backed Islamic radicals (Hizbollah) in Lebanon have revived fears of civil war up there. Hizbollah threatens to drag  Lebanon into another civil war, or another  war with Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli economy booms as Israel continues its effective counter-terrorism campaign.

IVORY COAST

An uneasy truce continues. The north and the south finally make a deal over money, religion and power. All this is watched over by  peacekeepers set up between the factions. 

KOREA

Growing unrest, corruption and privation threaten the iron control that has long kept the north peaceful. North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain armed forces capable of invading South Korea and keep its own population in bondage. Continued famine in the north has prompted China to send more and more troops to the border to keep hungry North Koreas out. North Korean military declines in power, as lack of money for maintenance or training cause continuing rot. Government split into reform and conservative factions, making change difficult to achieve. South Koreans are growing tired of the madness that still reigns in the north.

KURDISH WAR

Turkish aircraft and troops now operating on the Iraqi side of the border, seeking to either destroy Kurdish separatists, or push their bases further into Iraq. Kurds continue 5,000 year struggle to form their own country. Iran is cracking down on its Kurds, while Turkey threatens even more action if the Iraqi Kurdish government doesn't get serious about the Kurdish separatists who operate inside Turkey, from bases in Iraq. Iraqi Kurds believe they will get control of some Iraqi oil fields, providing cash for all manner of opportunities. But that is opposed by Iraqi Arabs and other minorities.

MEXICO

The U.S. border is like a war zone. The passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing corruption in the security forces, has triggered growing violence and unrest. The government has gone to war with the drug gangs, and the outcome is still in doubt.

NEPAL

Radical communist rebels succeed in eliminating the monarchy, via an alliance with political parties. This has decreased Maoist violence, and  caused a struggle for control of the government. All this has triggered uprising by other unhappy groups (more radical Maoists, hill tribes, ethnic Indians).

NIGERIA

Too many tribes, not enough oil money and too much corruption creates growing  violence. The tribes and gangs (both criminal and political) in the oil producing region (the Niger Delta) are getting organized, and a lot more violent. The northern Moslems want more control over the federal government (and the oil money). Local rebels threaten loss of most oil revenue, which is getting the governments attention.

POTENTIAL HOT SPOTS

Various places where the local situation is warming up and might turn into a war. Zimbabwe and Yemen are hot right now. 

PHILIPPINES

Islamic minority in the south wants its own country, and the expulsion of non-Moslems. Communist rebels in the north fight for social justice and a dictatorship. Both of these movements are losing and the Moslems are negotiating a peace deal that inches closer to a done deal. The communists are taking a beating, and not willing to talk seriously yet.

RUSSIA  

Rebuilding and reforming the decrepit Soviet era armed forces continues. The war against gangsters and Islamic radicals in Chechnya has been won, but the Islamic radicals continue to operate in other parts of the Caucasus.  Russia returns to police state ways, and traditional threatening attitude towards neighbors.

RWANDA & BURUNDI

War between better organized and more aggressive Tutsis and more numerous Hutu tribes. It's been going on for centuries, but the latest installment has finally ended, with the last Hutu group in Burundi giving up, then changing its mind.

SOMALIA

A failed state that defies every attempt at nation building. It was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over  economic issues (land and water). The  new "transitional" government, was nearly wiped out by  an "Islamic Courts" movement (which attempted  to put the entire country under the rule of Islamic clergy and Islamic law). When Islamic Courts threatened to expand into Ethiopia, Ethiopia invaded and smashed the Islamic Courts. The Islamic radicals have turned to terrorism, and Eritrea continues to provide support. The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight.

SRI LANKA

Tamil minority (19th century economic migrants from southern India) battles to partition the island.  A long ceasefire ends and fighting has resumed. Tamils (the LTTE) are losing this time. LTTE will not go quietly, even though they lose a little more each month.

SUDAN

Moslems in the north try to suppress separatist tendencies among Christians in the south and Moslem rebels in the east and west. All this is complicated by development of oil fields in the south, and Moslem government attempts to drive Christians from the oil region. Battles over land in the west pit Arab herders against black Sudanese farmers. Both sides are Moslem, but the government is backing the Arabs. The government uses Arab nationalism and economic ties with Russia and China to defy the world and get away with driving non-Arab tribes from Darfur. The government believes time is on its side, and that the West will never trying anything bold and effective to halt the violence. So far, the government has been proven right.

THAILAND  

Malay Moslems in the south are three percent of the population, and different.  Most Thais, are ethnic Thais and Buddhist. In the south, however, Islamic radicalism has arrived, along with an armed effort to create a separate Islamic state in the three southern provinces. Islamic terrorists grew more powerful month by month for several years, and refuse to negotiate. Security forces persisted and are making progress in rounding up the terrorists. Meanwhile, civil war brews between urban and rural segments of the population, under the leadership of political parties that differ on how the nation should be run.

UGANDA

Religion and tribalism combine to create a persistent rebellion in the north, which was aided by Sudan. But now the northern rebels have been worn down, and the unrest is just about done with. Final peace deal with LRA rebels being negotiated. It's taking longer than expected, and the LRA may just fade away before a final deal is made.

WAR ON TERROR

International terrorism has created a international backlash and a war unlike any other. The only terrorist victories are in the media. On the ground, the terrorists are losing ground everywhere. Their last refuges are chaotic, or cynical, places like Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Gaza, the Sahel, a few of the Philippine islands, and especially tribal regions of Pakistan (where al Qaeda is staging a last stand). They are being chased out of Iraq,  Somalia and the Philippines. Iran continues to support terrorism in the face of much local disapproval. Syria and Lebanon are in chaos because of Iranian subsidized factions. Gaza went the same way. Islamic radicals are a traditional reaction to tyranny in their region, and the inability of local despots to rule effectively. Economic and diplomatic ties with the West are interpreted as support, leading to  attacks on Western targets that created a devastating counterattack. The result of this in the Moslem world has been dramatic, finally forcing leaders and people to confront their self-inflicted problems. Al Qaeda is as self-destructive as its many predecessors. Al Qaeda suicide bomb attacks that continue to kill civilians, continues to turn Moslems against al Qaeda in a big way. But the terrorists justify such dumb attacks because their doctrine holds that Moslems who don't agree with them, are not really Moslems. You can imagine how well that goes over with most Moslems. You can, but al Qaeda can't, and that is what guarantees their demise.

 

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