Potential Hot Spots: May 6, 2002


Madagascar's High Constitutional Court swore in Marc Ravalomanana as president of the country. The swearing-in ceremony took place in Antananarivo, the capital. Antananarivo is a Ravalomanana stronghold. Despite Ravalomanana's apparent "victory," there is no evidence that President (ex-President?) Didier Ratsiraka and his followers will accept this result. Ratsiraka, who was elected president in a democratic vote in 1996, ran Madagascar as a military ruler from 1975 to 1993. Does that military connection mean President Ravalomanana is going to face the bayonets of a united, pro-Ratsiraka military? Not necessarily. Press reports indicate Ratsiraka made a lot of enemies in the military, and they are supporting Ravalomanana. (See past StrategyPage reports.) But Ratsiraka also has friends and supporters in uniform. That's the big question, what will the military do? (Austin Bay)


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