November 21, 2007:
the Maoists appear strong, they are actually quite weak on the ground. The
Maoists have been able to organize the local political radicals in many parts
of the country, but these guys are outnumbered by more pragmatic groups.
Staging strikes and demonstrations is one thing, but having more guys with
weapons is quite another. The majority is getting organized against the
Maoists, and for years, the big Maoist advantage was superior organization. The
most dramatic example of this was the sudden formation of ethnic Indian groups
in the tropical southern lowlands. Long quiet, this half of the population
suddenly got attitude, arms and organization. They were inspired by the Maoist
techniques, not the Maoist ideas. Nearly a hundred have died in the violent
south over the last six months, and many of the victims have been Maoists.
While their rural
political and military organizations are getting attacked, the Maoist
leadership has been fixated on eliminating the monarchy. This is an unpopular
move for many Nepalese, but the Maoists have become obsessed with it. Change is coming to Nepal, but not quite the
changes the Maoists have fought so hard to bring about.