The Maoist movement consists
of about three dozen regional and political factions. Some are more radical
than others, and since the ceasefire, the differences between the factions have
become more obvious. The more radical factions are ignoring the ceasefire, and
continuing to use terrorism and intimidation to get their way. More ominously,
about three percent of the 31,000 armed Maoists, who are in government
supported camps, have left the camps. The Maoist camp commanders insist those
who left are actually on leave, which is authorized by the ceasefire. But those
leaving say they are protesting poor treatment. In response to faction demands,
the Maoist leadership is now threatening to pull out of the government unless
Nepal is declared a republic before the November elections. The original peace
deal stipulated that the status of the king was to be decided after the elections.
The government has begun negotiation with the
ethnic separatists in the south. The Maoist leadership is not happy with how
these ethnic rebels have defeated Maoists in the south. About a thousand civil
servants have fled the violence in the south, and more have applied for
transfers. In the east, tribal separatists have called for a permanent strike,
and the formation of an autonomous state.
To avoid triggering more
ethic, tribal and separatist violence, the army has not been called out to deal
with any of the growing violence. But the police can't handle it, and the
Maoists are threatening to leave their camps and take control of more
territory. There are already growing numbers of Maoist activists forming
unarmed, but violent, groups that seek control of more territory.