Israel: May 10, 2004


Israel is apparently preparing to conduct a long range bombing mission to destroy Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities. Iran has denied trying to build nuclear weapons, but journalists and international nuclear weapons inspectors have  found otherwise. It is thought that Iran might assemble its first working nuclear weapon as early as this year. The Islamic conservatives who dominate the Iranian government, and run the nuclear weapons program, loudly and regularly proclaim that Israel and the United States are the greatest enemies of Islam and must be destroyed. Israel apparently would make the raid when their intelligence service was certain that Iran was beginning to make nuclear material for bombs. The main attack would be on the Iranian nuclear reactor. 

Israel made a similar raid on an Iraqi nuclear facility in 1981. The targets in Iran are 50-100 percent farther (1600-2500 kilometers) away. Getting through Jordanian air space is not a major problem, as the use of surprise and electronic warfare techniques can disable Jordanian air defenses temporarily. The Jordanians are also pragmatic about these things, and generally not willing to sacrifice a large chunk of the air defenses and air force while failing to stop the Israeli operation. 

Getting through Iraqi air space is not a problem either, although there will probably be an "understanding" that American jets and anti-aircraft missiles in the area will not fire on the Israelis. Once the Israeli warplanes reach Iran, they have smart bombs and electronic warfare weapons that give it bombing capabilities comparable to that of the United States. The major risks in such an air raid would be that one of Israelis Boeing 707 aerial tankers would be shot down while refueling the Israeli warplanes.  

Such an air raid would raise an enormous stink in the Moslem world, but the danger of Islamic radicals in Iran getting nuclear weapons is too great to ignore. Already, Iranian Islamic radicals are one of the main supporters (along with money stolen from UN and European Union economic aid to Palestinians) of anti-Israeli terrorism. 

Meanwhile, Palestinian terrorists continued to be stymied by Israeli counter-terrorism tactics. Palestinians are still inflicting casualties, but with small groups of gunmen ambushing Israeli settlers driving between the settlements and Israel. 




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