be hired than this official one, perhaps twice as high.

  The Revolutionary Guards, the armed component of religious conservatives, staged a major raid of a party in the capital. Thirty young men and twenty young women were arrested for drinking and dancing. The conservatives also control the police, but since the police work with the population on a regular basis, they have become less reliable for crackdowns on "un-Islamic" behavior. So the Revolutionary Guards are being brought out of their barracks and used to stage raids and combat demonstrations. If the people begin to fight back, that fits the definition of civil war.