Winning: Iran Faces Defeat in the Face of Victory


 October 15, 2023: The Hamas attack on Israel has turned into organizational suicide. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas and then send Mossad operatives after the surviving leaders in other parts of the world. Mossad had done this before and doesn’t announce it, but the Israeli government implies it, and Hamas leaders know about that. When Palestinian gunmen seized Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics and killed most of them, the Palestinian gunmen responsible sought hiding places in Europe. One by one they were killed. Israel admitted nothing but the Palestinians got the message. The Palestinian militant group Hamas seems unconcerned by that and is concentrating on killing as many Israelis as possible. Israel openly declared it would destroy Hamas and eliminate any terrorist threats in Gaza by destroying most of it and occupying what’s left. Two sides can attempt total destruction of the enemy. In this case, Israel has the means and Hamas does not. Israel is doing what it said it would and Hamas is rapidly disappearing.

Iran, which has long sponsored Hamas, did not want Hamas to commit suicide. The years of Iranian support for Hamas was expensive and they expected Hamas to keep attacking Israel without triggering a massive response. Now Hamas will be gone and the base area in Gaza, where Iranian supplied rockets had, for years proved useful for Iran, will be gone as well. Iran praised the Hamas rocket attacks on Israeli cities and killing of Israeli soldiers. Iran did not want to be associated with all the civilians, including women and children, Hamas killed. Hamas also took hostages with the intention of trading them for the release of thousands of Palestinians jailed in Israel to violent crimes. Israel did not respond to the Hamas offer and kept coming after Hamas, hoping to save the lives of as many hostages as possible. Hamas had no more leverage and realized they were being hunted down and killed by several hundred thousand Israeli soldiers, most of them mobilized for the occasion. As the old saying goes, choose your friends carefully and your enemies more carefully. Hamas chose poorly.

Iran tried to limit its losses by ordering the larger Hezbollah militia in Lebanon to stand down. Hamas had called on Hezbollah to join them in killing Israelis but only a few Hezbollah members and pro-Hamas Palestinians in Lebanon fired rockets and missiles into Israel. Israeli troops fired back while diplomats tried to arrange a discreet temporary alliance between Lebanon and Israel so that Hezbollah could be destroyed. That would allow Hezbollah’s loving neighbors, i.e., Lebanese Christians and Sunni Arabs, to ethnically cleanse Lebanon of the Shia Arabs who form 100% of Hezbollah.

Lebanon has sought to get rid of Hezbollah since the Lebanese civil war ended in 1991. Most Lebanese were anti-Israel, but the many Lebanese Christians were not. Iran hates Christians and Hezbollah was ordered to act accordingly. In return, Iran smuggled weapons, including rockets and missiles, to Hezbollah for use against Israel and any Lebanese who got in the way. The United States wanted to keep Hezbollah from joining Hamas’ war against Israel and moved a nearby carrier task force close to southern Lebanon with orders to discourage that. Everyone in the area wants Hezbollah gone but the Americans don’t want to risk that war spreading.

The only country that wants Hezbollah to survive is Iran. If Hezbollah is destroyed, it will be an act of peacemaking for the region. There will still be religious and nationalistic violence but, excepting the removal or extermination of Lebanese Shia, not on the previous scale that existed for so many years.




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