Counter-Terrorism: Waiting For Americans To Leave

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March 10,2008: U.S. troops in Iraq can see the next round of Iraqi terrorism taking form. Next time, it will mainly be Shia Islamic radicals, trying to terrorize their way into power. Muqtada al Sadr, the head of the radical Mahdi Army, may be a little slow, but he's not stupid. He finally figured out that his primary asset is time; sooner or later the US will be gone, having rid the country of al Qaeda and the most militant Sunni groups. Then all he has to deal with will be the moderate Shia.

This is a rather fanciful plan, since American troops will be in the region (Kuwait) for a long, long time. That's because Kuwait still fears Iraq and Iran (and even Saudi Arabia, if only a little bit). But Sadr, and other Shia radicals, control over a third of the seats in parliament. If they can hold onto that, they can maintain pressure for a quick American exit from Iraq. There's also the hope that, in the United States, the next president will be a Democrat, and inclined to keep campaign promises about getting out of Iraq right away. That's not a sure thing either. What is a sure thing is that if the Shia radical groups take on American forces again, they will get slaughtered just like the last few times.

 


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