Murphy's Law: From Russia With Hidden Flaws

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November 1, 2017: In October 2017, after a year of negotiations over terms, Russia began delivering free military equipment to Serbia. The most visible items were the six MiG-29 fighters that were supposed to arrive in March 2017 but delays were experienced. There was no explanation for the delays but is was believed to be all about the terms of the gift (which includes 60 armored vehicles and various other items). This deal was meant to save Serbia a lot of money but the Russians wanted the Serbs to pay for upgrades to bring these MiG-29s up to the latest standards. The actual costs for this was not announced but it was revealed that Russia was financing the deal. Once the MiGs arrive the upgrades can be scheduled and completed sometime in the unspecified future. If this all sounds rather murky and mysterious, that is normal for the Balkans and especially for the many dealings Serbia and Russia have endured since the 19th century. Both countries remain aware that this relationship played a key role in triggering World War I in 1914.

The MiG-29 saga also goes way back. Serbia got its first MiG-29s (four of them) in the early 1990s when Yugoslavia came apart as a side effect of the collapse of communist rule in East Europe and Russia. At the time Russia told Serbia that it would provide more free or cheap MiG-29s but never did. There were always money (Russia was broke) or political (the West objected to sending more weapons to an unstable area) reasons for not sending Serbia military aid. But in 2016 Russia was making a big deal about keeping an old promise. That’s how Russia diplomacy works in the Balkans.

This deal was not a sudden decision. In late 2014 the Russian president sent some essential supplies to Serbia, as a personal gift, to put some of Serbia’s MiG-21 and MiG-29 aircraft back in service. The essential supplies consisted of special batteries the MiGs required to operate. Why did the Serbs lack batteries? Therein lies an interesting tale.

Serbian Air Force officials knew in 2013 that they had to obtain additional batteries and asked the Defense Ministry to order them. This was done, but not before someone in the Defense Ministry noted that India offered the same batteries (manufactured for their own MiGs and for export) at a third of what the Russians (the usual supplier) charged. So Serbia ordered from India. Russia found out and demanded that Serbia cancel that order or else Russia would withhold MiG parts and maintenance services only Russia could provide. Serbia protested but was reminded that in 1999 Russia was the only major power that had backed them when they sought, in vain, to prevent Kosovo province from becoming an independent state (something NATO approved of). The Serbs felt they owned their “big brother” something and gave in. However the Serbs pointed out that money was short and it would be a while before they could scrape together the funds to pay for the pricey Russian batteries.

While all this was going on the air force ran out of batteries. Thus by mid-2014 the Serbian air force revealed that none of its combat aircraft (26 MiG-21s, four MiG-29s and 18 J-22s) were available for duty because the Defense Ministry was having problems buying batteries for the aircraft.

Serbia doesn’t have much of an air force to begin with and the cost of maintenance has been a struggle just to take care of basics. By late 2014 the air force insisted that three MiG-21s and three MiG-29s were available for emergency service but no one had seen any of them flying for months. Some of the older aircraft have been out of action for so long that it would take a major refurbishment to get them back into the air. Most of the non-combat aircraft are also grounded because of maintenance problems also related to procurement costs.

At first it was believed that the battery situation was clearly another example of the Defense Ministry procurement bureaucracy getting in the way. In the past the procurement bureaucrats had been involved in some situations where the troops complained of a torturous and lengthy process for ordering equipment. There were even cases where the procurement bureaucrats seemed to ignore how delays in obtaining parts or supplies would impact equipment readiness. But in this case the procurement officials were trying to save some money so that more critical parts or maintenance supplies could also be purchased. Russia, as it has often done to others in the past, gets very disruptive and threatening when anyone seeks to buy MiG parts or services from anyone but Russia.

Normally all this procurement politics is classified as “state secrets” but word on the battery fiasco got out because of the high handed behavior of the Russians. Thus in this case there were no calls for an investigation to find and prosecute the “spy” who made this item public. Russia tried to break the deadlock and portray itself as the good guy by donating some of the needed batteries. But many other batteries must be bought at the usual price, which is three times what the Indians charge. Buy Russian, or else and never forget who your Big Brother is.

Mindful of the ill will generated by all this the 2016 MiG-29 deal was accompanied by the donation of 60 used by operation armored vehicles (30 T-72 tanks and 30 BRDM-2 wheeled reconnaissance vehicles). Many Serbs withheld their thanks until Russia actually delivers. Similar situations regularly occur elsewhere in the Balkans. For example in October 2017 Bulgarian pilots refused to fly their MiG-29s because of safety issues. India has had similar problems and in some cases, especially since 1991, some buyers demand, and get, a “money back if not satisfied” clause in the purchase contract. That clause has been exercised a few times, often in the case of MiG-29s.

 

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