January 18, 2026:
A year ago, Russia persuaded China to stop selling Ukraine drones or drone components. The Chinese government said it would be done. The Chinese firms that produced drones and drone components were willing to lose one of their largest customers. While the media reported that Ukrainian troops were now short of drones, the shortage was never real and Ukraine had already made plans to deal with the possibility of China helping Russia by cutting off Ukrainian supplies of drones and components.
The reality was that dozens of Ukrainian drone manufacturers and thousands of individual Ukrainians continued to make drones by obtaining the needed components from other suppliers. The Chinese suppliers were also not willing to give up selling components, or even drones, to Ukraine. There were trading companies that, for a small fee, would buy goods from Chinese manufacturers and then quietly sell them to a sanctioned customer. The markup was small because there were many of these trading companies and they competed on price as well as service.
And then there was the network of drone components suppliers Ukraine organized in European, American and Asian suppliers. The components needed for drones are used in many other commercial products. In short, the Russian sponsored Chinese drone blockade failed and cost Chinese drone and component manufacturers a lot of business.
Ukraine could not afford to have their drone supply interrupted. Modern warfare was radically changed by the introduction of drones, particularly the First Person View/FPV drones. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry on foot. Each FPV drone costs less than a thousand dollars. Operators use the video camera on the drone to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so the drone operators often operate in pairs, with one flying behind the other and concentrating on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When such a target is found by the reconnaissance drone, the armed drone is directed to the target. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. The reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the air to seek a target.
The Ukrainians developed the FPV drone in 2022, when only a few FPV drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones. By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army also began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since then, the number of FPV drone attacks has grown exponentially on both sides. Only twelve percent of those attacks led to the destruction of the target, which could be a vehicle or group of infantry or even a sniper who was firing through a window from inside a building. In this case, the armed FPV drone would fly through the window and explode in the room the sniper was in. The only defense from this was having a nearby open door the sniper could run to or dive through as the FPV drone approached. Sometimes that isn’t possible because the armed FPV drone is coming down from above the window and then in. You don’t see those coming until it’s too late.
Ukraine built about five million drones in 2025 and plans to quadruple that in 2026. The current rate of production for defensive drones which intercept enemy drones, is 1500 a day and more than 500,000 annually. The total for 2024 was 1.5 million drones. At least 70 percent of Ukrainian drones are built entirely in Ukraine, and the rest from imported parts or whole assemblies. Some Ukrainian firms have improvised by using plywood and similar materials for their drones. For the FPV First Person View drones, cheaper is better if the drone can hit its first and only target. Most Ukrainian drones are FPV models, which are considered a form of ammunition.