April 18, 2007: The PKK threatened to officially
end the "on and off ceasefire" they have
with Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkey is conducting a "counter-guerrilla" sweep in
southeastern Turkey and there apparently Turkish forces near the Iraq-Turkey
border. Despite all this, a full-scale
attack on PKK positions in northern Iraq (the invasion scenario) remains
unlikely. The Turkish parliament must authorize military operations outside of
Turkish territory. However, special forces raids and a multi-brigade operation
(the incursion scenario) are still in the cards. The "incursion scenario" could
involve up to five or six brigades of troops (perhaps 25,000 to 30,000
soldiers). Given the political sensitivities, a smaller force package is more
likely. What would an incursion look like? Mechanized infantry supported by
tanks and aircraft would seize villages and occupy more open terrain, mountain
infantry units supported by helicopters (and some light armor) would take up
blocking positions and conduct search operations in rough terrain. Special
forces would be very active, gathering intelligence and preparing ambush
positions along mountains trails used by the
PKK.
April 16, 2007: Turkey reported that its troops
killed 12 PKK rebels in a series of firefights in southeastern Turkey. One
Turkish soldier was killed.
April 13, 2007: Turkey's senior military officer,
Chief of General Staff, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, said that the Turkish military
wants the Turkish government to give it "permission" to attack PKK bases in
northern Iraq. The public statement by a senior officer sends Iraq another
clear political signal that Turkey expects the Iraqi government to act against
the PKK. The Turkish military wants the Iraqis to strike several targets but
PKK bases in the Kandil Mountains are a major concern. The Turkish military
believes that the PKK intends to "accelerate its operations" in May. That's one
reason Turkey has launched a series of major counter-guerrilla sweep operations
in southeastern Turkey.
