April 16,
2008: The Russian Caucasus (Chechnya, Daghestan, Ingushetia,
Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachayevo-Circassia) has been producing spectacular
headlines since Russia got involved with the region three centuries ago. But
not a similarly high body count, at least not lately. In 2007, most of the
casualties (192 dead, over 700 arrested) there were among the terrorists and
gangsters (it's often hard to tell the difference). The most dramatic indicator
of success has been the decline in kidnapping in Chechnya. In 2002 there were
544, and that didn't start declining dramatically until 2005 (when there were
323). Last year there were 21.
In 2007,
the counter-terror forces took down 17 Caucasus gangs and 28 terrorism leaders.
The pressure has forced many of the terror groups to move from Chechnya to
adjacent areas, where criminal activity has increased. The terrorists have
recognized the main threat to them, and have targeted elite counter-terror
teams. Several key counter-terrorism experts have died in the Caucasus
recently, and the battle has become very personal. Government officials are
spending a lot more on personal security, and more emphasis is now on catching
or killing specific terrorist leaders who are behind the assassination
campaign.
