June 27, 2023:
Iranian influence on the Shia rebels is fading and many rebel factions call for some kind of peace deal and an end to a civil war that the rebels were losing. The war continues in part because this factionalism among the rebels is something that the government and Saudis are unable to address.
Ceasefire negotiations did have some positive results, in addition to the reduced fighting plus halts to Saudi airstrikes and rebel missile attacks into Saudi Arabia. Commercial passenger and cargo flights were resumed in rebel-controlled airports. In February aid shipments resumed through the Red Sea port of Hodeida for the first time since 2016 with the arrival of the first general cargo ship which unloaded followed by the arrival and unloading of two more. The cargo delivery was made possible by the ongoing peace talks between the government and the Shia rebels. Bringing general cargo in via Hodeida was cheaper for customers in the northwest than the previous use of the southern port of Aden. This required sending the cargo north by truck.
There is still some fighting in the usual war zones; Taiz province in the south and Marib in central Yemen. The fighting is less intense than in the past. The Saudis continue to negotiate directly with the Shia rebels in order to keep the peace on the Saudi border. Peace in the Shia rebel north is partly the result of exhaustion after eight years of fighting and not much to show for it. Down south the Yemen government controls 80 percent of Yemen but has to deal with separatist southerners and Islamic terrorists. The STC (South Transitional Council) and many government troops spent the ceasefire period going after Islamic terrorist groups AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) in the south and east. A major reason for rebels agreeing to a ceasefire was a decline in Iranian support due to lack of funds plus unrest at home. The Iranian weapons, cash, advisors and smuggling network supercharged the Shia rebels, enabling them to keep fighting the more numerous and better armed force arrayed against them. Iran has been openly supporting the Shia rebels since 2014 and later admitted that less visible support had been supplied since 2011.
Eight years of civil war have revived the centuries old north-south divide. This was last “mended” in the 1990s. The possibility of a split has returned because the UAE (United Arab Emirates) has been in charge of security (and aid delivery) in the south since 2015 and supported formation of the STC. This group is composed of southern tribes that want autonomy but are willing to fight and defeat the Islamic terrorists as well as the Shia rebels. Aidarous al Zubaidi, the STC leader, is seen as more popular in the south than any government official. The Saudis and the UAE do not agree on dividing Yemen once more but for the moment it is more convenient to support the STC and its efforts to defeat the Iran-backed Shia rebels.
Information based on interceptions by American and other warships in the naval blockade of rebel-controlled coastlines indicates that Iranian smuggling of weapons to the rebels continues but at a lower intensity, and consists mainly of infantry weapons rather than cruise and ballistic missiles used to attack Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are negotiating directly with the Iranians about the fighting in Yemen and how to reduce it. This is part of an effort, brokered by the Chinese, to improve relations between the Saudis and Iran and reduce the tensions in the Persian Gulf and Yemen.
Yemen was in bad shape economically before the civil war began in 2015. Since then, the situation has gotten much worse. There have been nearly 400,000 deaths, most of them caused by starvation and illness, not combat. The damage to infrastructure and lack of food led to an outbreak of cholera in 2016, which has made over two million people ill since then, killing about 4,000. Nearly fifteen percent of the population were driven from their homes. Nearly 20 million of the 24 million Yemenis have suffered hunger and/or poverty as a result of the war. Most Yemenis are exhausted by the years of privation and violence and are willing to accept peace on just about any terms. The currency is too expensive in terms of buying dollars, to import affordable goods. The rebels disrupted oil exports. These are small but account for most of the government budget.
June 24, 2023: In Saudi Arabia two Yemeni men were executed for planning terror attacks in Saudi Arabia and having already obtained weapons and explosives.
June 22, 2023:
In the south (Ibb province) hundreds of uniformed and armed Shia rebels gathered and organized themselves into parade formation and held a parade. This was unexpected and seen as a morale building event that might encourage some of the locals to join Ibb province is northeast of Taiz province, another area where the rebels are still fighting and losing ground. The current truce has reduced the fighting to very low levels, apparently low enough to send hundreds of rebels to one location and hold an unannounced parade.
June 19, 2023: For the first time since 2015, Yemeni Shia flew to Saudi Arabia to take part in the annual Haj pilgrimage in the city where Islam was founded. Such travel from Yemen ceased in 2015 because the Iran-backed civil war included attacks on Saudi Arabia.
June 11, 2023: In the south (Shabwa province) al Qaeda Islamic terrorists ambushed and killed two soldiers. Two of the attackers were wounded. This part of Yemen still harbors some al Qaeda groups, the main one being AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula). There are also some ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) factions as well but ISIL is not tolerated anywhere in Yemen.
May 25, 2023: At the prompting of Iran, Yemen Shia rebels kidnapped 17 members of the Bahai religion who were among the 2,000 living in the capital Sanaa. The Bahai movement began in Iran during the 19th century and believed in the goodness in all religions. Since then, they have been persecuted in most Moslem majority nations as heretics. There are only about six million Bahai worldwide and their world headquarters is in Israel. That’s another reason for Iran to go after the Bahai.
