November 2, 2007: The fighting
along the northern front is increasing, with nearly 500 casualties in the last
week. The air force is claiming five successful strikes in the last week, but
there's no way to confirm that. The October 22nd LTTE attack on the air force
base, containing most of the military recon aircraft, will have an impact. The
government is scrambling to replace those aircraft and UAVs, but this will
takes months. Meanwhile, the armed forces will be fighting partially blinded.
The military can rely more on their radio intercept units, which have been
successful in eavesdropping on LTTE radio traffic, and deriving much useful
information. Same with the growing informant network inside LTTE territory in
the north.
October 31, 2007: The
continuing crime and disorder in eastern Sri Lanka is largely caused by the
large number of rifles and pistols available. This is the result of two decades
of LTTE violence, and importation of firearms. This has brought over half a
million illegal weapons into the country. When the LTTE was defeated in the
east, not all the enemy weapons were captured. Many are now held by criminal
and political gangs, as well as individual citizens. The same pattern is
expected to emerge in the north, as the LTTE is cleared out of those areas. The
illegal weapons will be a problem for decades.
