October 4,
2008: Increasingly, Sunni Arab clerics
are agreeing with their Shia counterparts, that Iran and the Sunni Arabs are on
a collision course. It's not just about which version of Islam is to be
dominant, but which Islamic country will control the most sacred Islamic
shrines, and, in effect, become the spiritual leader of the Islamic world. No one has held that position for about a thousand
years. Saudi Arabia controls the key shrines (Mecca and Medina), but the Saudis
are not accepted as the leader of the Islamic world. To most Moslems, the
Saudis are a bunch of desert hillbillies who got lucky (with all that oil).
Except for a brief few centuries, after Mohammed founded Islam and began the
Islamic military campaigns that spread the new religion from Spain to India, no
one paid much attention to the Arabs. In terms of numbers, Arabs make up less
than a quarter of all Moslems. Most Moslems resent the Arab attempt to dominate
Islam, just as early Christians resented attempts by Italians to control the
Christian world. Iran, on the other hand, has been in the empire business for
thousands of years. In comparison, the Arabs are a flash in the pan. But then
there is the race angle. The Iranians are an Indo-European people, and have
been defeating, and generally lording it over the Arabs, a Semitic people, for
thousands of years. Memories are long in this part of the world, and in this
case, ethnic memory trumps religion. Normally the Sunni and Shia Moslems do not
get along very well. Conservative Sunnis consider the Shia heretics. And the
fact that most Shia are Iranians does not help matters either. Iranians are a
tinier fraction of all Moslems than the Arabs.
Over 80
percent of the world's Moslems are Sunni, and radical Sunnis (like the ones who
run al Qaeda) believe the Shia are heretics and must be killed if they do not
accept Sunni religious practices and beliefs. Thus, in the Arab world (which is
very, very Sunni), Iran getting nuclear weapons is seen as a religious, as well
as a military, threat.
Al Qaeda is
basically a Sunni Arab organization that attracts recruits who are not Arabs,
but who MUST be Sunni. Al Qaeda was founded by members of the conservative
Wahabi form of Islam found in Saudi Arabia. To a Wahabi, even contact with
infidels (non-Moslems) is forbidden, and it is the duty of all Moslems to
convert or kill the infidels. One should not lose sight of al Qaeda's core
values and goals. When you do focus in on those values and goals, the video of
an American civilian being beheaded makes some kind of perverted sense.
While Sunni extremists
(who exist throughout the Moslem world) are obsessed with killing or
converting heretics, the Iranian Shia take a longer view. They see the
September 11, 2001 attacks as a great victory for Iran. Not only did it kill
lots of Americans, but the U.S. response drove the Sunni extremists (the
Taliban) out of control in Afghanistan. The Taliban were persecuting and
killing Shia Afghans, and Iran was unable to stop it. Then the Americans
toppled Saddam Hussein (who had long
been hated in Iran) and put the Iraqi Shia in charge. The Iranian Shia clergy
saw this as God's will, and a sign that Iran was on its way to becoming the
ruler of Islam, and then the world (after everyone converted to Islam).
Although some rather
loopy (by Iranian and Western standards) Shia clerics are running Iran, most of
these clerics are typical Iranian leaders. That is, they are shrewd, patient,
cautious and not given to rash decisions. It's these qualities that scare the
Arabs the most, because the Iranian approach usually succeeds. That's why the
Iranians have been the regional superpower for as long as there have been
empires in this region. The Arabs note how Iran has made friends with China and
Russia, thereby becoming immune to severe UN sanctions. The Iranians have also
established a smuggling network that keeps their military going. The Iranians
have been at odds with the United States for over three decades and are still
standing. That impresses the Arabs, and scares them.
What gives the Arabs
heart is the fact that the U.S. has been clever as well. The conventional
wisdom is that the Americans are oafs when it comes to diplomacy. But like most
conventional wisdom, the truth is more interesting. The U.S. has refrained from
bombing Iran (which would make the radicals there more popular), and has, so
far, managed to keep Israel from doing so as well. The Americans have done
great damage to the Iranian smuggling efforts via subtle efforts, like
restricting Iranian access to the international financial markets. The U.S. has
used its large Iranian immigrant community to get information into Iran, and
keep the political pot boiling there. The Arabs note how the Americans have
been dealing with the Iranian efforts to subvert and control the new, Shia
dominated government in Iraq. All these successes are buried by the media
preference for criticism of America. But the Arabs see, and report, on what is
actually happening, and stick by their American friends. This, despite the fact
that the U.S. is the main ally of Israel, which is a big deal in the Arab world
(which wishes Israel did not exist.)
The next miracle the
Arabs are waiting for, is how the U.S. will prevent Iran from getting nuclear
weapons. At the rate things are going now, Iran will have nukes in 5-10 years,
if not sooner. If that happens, several Gulf Arab nations will use their
trillion dollar war chest to buy nukes. They will get them, and the world will
have another risky nuclear standoff (in addition to the one between India and
Pakistan).
Within the
Iranian ruling circle, there is no unanimity on many things, including nuclear
weapons. The "moderates" want to dial down the rhetoric (and terrorism
support and nuclear weapons program) and make peace with the world. The
"radicals" want to keep moving forward towards the goal of world
domination via unstoppable Shia Islam. The radicals have an edge because they
are on a Mission From God, willing to die, and not willing to compromise. To
many Iranians, these Iranian extremists are scary, and something that must be
stopped before the world, and Iran, suffers some great catastrophe.
There is no
single Iranian opposition group, even though there is widespread opposition.
Historically, this is how things work in Iran. But eventually all these
opposition groups reach the point where they feel they have no option but to
act. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, there is an upheaval, and change. So, for
the moment, all the world can do is wait for the gift from nowhere to arrive.
