August 21,
2008: Iran continues to ignore threats of
sanctions from the West, and keeps its nuclear power (and suspected nuclear
weapons) program going. Iran is getting around the sanctions by increasingly
going to China for materials, and access to financial services. Russia and
China continue to run interference for Iran in the UN.
The national
leadership appear to have no illusions about their military situation. The
Iranian armed forces are organized and equipped mainly to keep the Iranian
people in line. Sanctions have kept the military from upgrading their equipment
much over the last three decades, meaning that the Iranians are not very well
prepared to fight conventional wars with any of its neighbors. While the
military tries to cover this up, by periodically announcing fictional new
domestic weapons developments, this only helps with morale among government
supporters inside Iran. But externally, some of Iran's neighbors use the
Iranian fictions to get support for their own military buildups. But there is
some reality in this, as the Gulf Arabs know that the Iranians have a long and
formidable military reputation as fighters. This was why, in 1988, when Iran
agreed to a ceasefire with Iraq (after a failed Iraqi invasion turned into an
eight year war), the Arab world considered it a victory. So the Gulf Arabs buy billions
(over a hundred billion) dollars worth of modern weapons, and hope the military
sanctions on Iran persist. But that has not stopped Iran from attacking. They
just do it via third parties. Iranian aid to groups like Hezbollah and Hamas
are only the tip of the iceberg. Iran provides less publicized support for Shia
radicals throughout the Persian Gulf, and even in Pakistan. This is not a
decisive military weapon, but it does distract potential opponents, and makes
the Iranian government appear as a "protector of oppressed Shia"
everywhere. With nuclear weapons, Iran could make more compelling and
convincing threats.
Over the last
few months, several hundred pro-Iranian Iraqi Shia gunmen fled to Iran to
escape Iraqi and American troops over the last few months. These Shia were key
members of the Mahdi Army militia, and the Iranians are providing them more
training. Apparently the Iranians are helping the Iraqis form death squads, so
that they can return and kill key government officials. This can be a powerful
weapon, that can change the minds of many surviving politicians and security
officials. Muqtada al Sadr and his Mahdi Army have used assassination in the past,
but stopped when the government, and other armed groups, threatened massive
retaliation. But Hezbollah in Lebanon has demonstrated that expert death
squads, that can cover their tracks well, can be very effective. Since this new
Iranian ploy is no secret, Iraqi and American forces are working to seal the
border, and build up an informant network in Shia communities. By making it
difficult for the Shia killers to return, and operate inside Iraq, the impact
of the death squads will be much less.
Revolutionary
Guards continue fighting Kurdish separatists along the northern Iraq border.
Captured Kurds are often executed, to encourage other Kurds to cool it. The
Iranian government believes that they have a highly effective police state in
place, and that if they keep using it to identify and neutralize (jail, kill or
drive into exile) opposition leaders, they will prevent any meaningful threat
from developing.
August 11,
2008: In the southwest, Sunni Baluchi
separatists have killed two policemen and kidnapped three more. The Baluchi
rebels persist largely because they can always find sanctuary just across the
border in Pakistan, where most of the Baluchi tribes are.
