July 28,
2008: The government continues to fight
on several fronts. At home, the secret police have managed to neutralize
student reform organizations by jailing the leaders of any groups that show up.
Adult reformers are easier to deal with. Threaten their livelihoods, and
ability to support their families, and they are tamed. That leaves the Internet
pests, who are particularly troublesome because they stay hidden and pass
information to foreigners. Attempts to police the Internet have been stymied by
exiled Iranians passing on technical tips on how to avoid such censorship. So
while there are fewer political demonstrations, the population still seethes,
and grows more unruly. Newspapers are now banned if they report economic
problems. That sort of things is making people angrier than the loss of
political freedom.
In Iraq,
things are not going well at all. Last year's surge offensive destroyed al
Qaeda, and this year rolled on to crush the pro-Iranian Mahdi Army. Meanwhile,
the Iranian backed Badr Brigade (the military arm of the ISCI, or Islamic
Supreme Council of Iraq) kept their heads down and played by the rules of
electoral politics. While ISCI was kept alive for years inside Iran, they have
not shown a lot of gratitude. Most ISCI members are not willing to turn Iraq
into a junior partner in Iran's Islamic world empire. ISCI wants more power within
Iraq, and doesn't want to share it with Iran.
The
continuing government offensive in Iraq is piling up more evidence of Iranian
backing of terrorist groups. Dozens of prisoners tell the same story of being
trained in Iran. Documents and weapons manufactured in Iran are captured in
larger quantities each week. It's not only embarrassing for Iran, but also
represents destruction of their network within Iraq. The Iraqis are able to do
most of the raiding and policing, leaving U.S. troops to go after the smuggling
routes from Iran. The borders are harder for Iraqis to police, since the
smugglers use bribes more than bullets to clear the way. The bribes won't work
against the Americans, and it's now getting harder to move unwanted people and
goods from Iran to Iraq.
Five years
of sanctions and diplomacy have weakened Iran, but not stopped their nuclear
program. Mismanagement by the clerics who rule Iran have done more damage to
the economy (mainly because of corruption, nepotism and favoritism in general)
than the sanctions. Having nuclear weapons is popular within Iran. While
Iranians don't like their clerical government, they do like the idea of
restoring Iran's past glories. Nukes will enable Iran to impose its will on its
neighbors, or something like that. Iranians are a little vague on the details,
and seem to forget that their Arab neighbors have nuclear armed allies (the U.S.,
Britain and France). The world is concerned that a more cocky Iran would
interfere with oil exports. That would be a disaster for the Iranian clerics,
who know that it's only the rising price of oil that is enabling them to buy
internal peace (the clerics have the loyalty of about a third of the
population, and many of them are on the state payroll). Don't make the payroll,
and things could get real ugly real fast. So what do you do with nuclear
weapons? Put them in a cargo ship and detonate the device off the coast of
Israel? That sounds real enough for the Israelis, who are making really convincing
noises about an air attack on the Iranian nuclear weapons program. While the
world urges Israeli restraint, all the Israelis can hear are the constant
threats from Iranian leaders to "destroy Israel." It was 75 years ago that the German
NASDP (the National Socialist German Workers Party) called for the elimination
of the Jews. The NASDP soon became the Nazis, took over Germany, went to war
and killed over 12 million "enemies" in death camps, half of the victims being
Jews. So an Israeli attack on Iran has some credibility, because all concerned
can understand that the Israelis are more motivated to stay alive, than the
Iranians are to try and kill them all.
In light
of the Israeli threat, Iran is hustling to obtain and install Russian S-300
surface-to-air (SAM) missiles. This purchase has been in the works for over a
year, and Russia is trying to make deliveries this year. U.S. intelligence
believes the missiles won't arrive until early next year. Meanwhile, the Iranian
crews and technicians are being trained by the Russians. Currently, Iran only
has some short range modern SAMs, plus a lot of old stuff that the Israelis
could easily blow past.
The
Iranian government constantly demonstrates its willingness to use terror even
against its own people. This week, 29 common criminals were hung at a rare mass
execution. Most of these guys were involved with drugs. Still in the planning
stages is another mass execution, where eight women and one man will be stoned
to death for adultery.
Someone is
using terror against the government. So far this year, several arms shipments
to Hizbollah have met with unexpected disaster. A trainload of weapons derailed
in Turkey. This week, a truck convoy carrying missiles and munitions blew up,
killing fifteen people. Could be a coincidence, but the Iranians blame Israel
and the United States for such things, as they have done for decades.
