April 4,
2008: China and South Korea cut off food
aid to North Korea last year. That led to free food distribution to be cut in
the North Korean countryside last November. This was recently extended to the
cities, including the capital. This is unheard of. Now people must rely on
their own resources, and the markets, for their food. Everyone has a "job" in North
Korea, but the pay is often less than what is needed to buy sufficient food to
avoid malnutrition, or even starvation. The price of rice is now equal to about
two weeks pay (for the lowest paid) per pound. A pound of rice is about 1700
calories. Do the math. People are getting sick and dying from this in the countryside,
and this Summer, the death rate in the cities will rise as well. North Korea has
been demanding resumption of food shipments from South Korea and China, but
both of these nations are demanding nuclear disarmament and more economic
reforms first. South Korea and China are out of patience with the government in
North Korea. However, the main problem is a growing feud inside the North Korea
government. The military faction wants to keep the nukes and use force to crack
down on corruption and growing indiscipline within North Korea. Most Communist Party
bureaucrats are keen to heed advice from South Korea and China, and reform the
economy. The generals of the military and secret police fear this will lead to popular
unrest. In addition to growing corruption within the government, more people are
trying to get out of North Korea. There are 3,000 North Korean refugees living
in South Korea, and they number arriving each week has gone from 30 to 75
recently. More than twice as money are getting out of North Korea, but it's
difficult to get out of China to South Korea.
Throughout
the North Korean government, everyone has been ordered to cut back. Years of
Western actions against North Korean criminal activities, and access to the
world banking system, have had a cumulative effect. North Korea is broke and
getting broker. North Korea is still producing good quality counterfeit American
currency (50s and 100s). This stuff is even used within North Korea.
Meanwhile,
in the south, per-capital income has risen to $20,000 (in real dollars). That's
more than twenty times what it is in the north. The two halves of Korea have
become very different worlds. While South Korea has been improving its military
over the last decade, North Korea has seen its equipment waste away. Currently,
South Korea accounts for five percent of world weapons imports (versus 12
percent for China). Nations import high tech stuff they cannot make themselves.
The rise in oil prices has hit the military, but only to the extent that South
Korean fighter pilots fly 135 hours a year instead of 150 (and use flight
simulators more). That's still ten times what North Korean pilots get. The North
Korean generals threaten the south, but the threats are increasingly hollow.
The North Korean military can still do a lot of damage in the south, but they
cannot win. And the southerners are talking about war crimes trials for
northern generals if the north ever attacks. Southern diplomats are being increasingly
blunt with their northern counterparts, warning that the end is near, and
preparations should be made. The basic advice is, shape up or starve.
