November 29,
2008: Iraqis are still nervous about moving about outside, but the crowds and
wanted posters are signs that it's sort of safe. The crowds indicate that the
locals feel it's safe enough to be out and about. The wanted posters have
become increasingly popular, and visible, this year. In the past, anti-government
neighborhoods would see the posters torn down as quickly as they were put up,
and those putting them up would be killed or threatened. That rarely happens
anymore. There are still a few hard core Sunni or Shia neighborhoods, and they
identify themselves by removing wanted posters (for local terrorists) as
quickly as they go up. Another reassuring thing to look for is women's faces
and figures. In religiously strict Sunni and Shia neighborhoods, the women are
terrorized into covering up, and staying off the streets. Where you don't see
that, there are not many religious fanatics on the prowl.
The hostile
atmosphere, for terrorists, has destroyed the network of Sunni Arab terrorists
throughout central Iraq. Several times a month, another major terrorist leader
gets arrested. It's also become clear that most of these big shots are not
getting replaced. The Syrian and Iranian borders are, month by month, more
difficult for smugglers to get through. That means Sunni terrorists receive
less support from Syria, and their Shia counterparts are getting less aid from
Iran. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Turkey have always made an effort to
control their Iraq border, which is why most of the terrorist traffic went
through Syria and Iran.
Despite the
years of terrorist violence, there are still many Iraqis (10-20 percent, most
of them Shia) who support radical groups, and their radical solutions. Several
Sunni terror cells are still operating, and followers of exiled (in Iran) Shia
radical Moqtada al Sadr still demonstrate a lot, and kill a lot less. The
terrorists who remain active, mainly Sunni groups still hoping to trigger a
"civil war" with the Shia majority, and thus an opportunity for the
Sunnis to somehow regain control of the country, are concentrating on attacks
that will get media attention. They do that, but the overall impact of the
attacks is much diminished. U.S. casualties this year will be about a third of
what they were last year. Same with Iraqi casualties, despite the best efforts
of the terrorists. Greater emphasis has been placed on the use of female
suicide bombers, as Iraqi security has improved to the point where it's very
difficult to get male bombers to targets the media will notice (markets,
government buildings). A suicide bombers risks getting ignored if the explosion
takes place where there are few victims or points of interest.
Terrorists
have also been using gunmen dressed as Iraqi police or soldiers, to attack,
usually with gunfire, American troops. This has happened several times,
especially in quiet areas where the U.S. troops are helping with relief or
reconstruction projects. Despite that, U.S. casualties remain at their lowest
point ever in Iraqi.
November 27,
2008: The Iraqi parliament approved a
Status of Forces agreement for U.S. troops. These agreements are standard for
nations where foreign troops are stationed, and the United States has them with
dozens of countries where substantial numbers of U.S. troops are stationed
(including several in the Persian Gulf). The agreement with Iraq provides the
option for most U.S. troops to be withdrawn by the end of 2011, and removes
immunity from local prosecution for civilian contractor personnel working for
the United States. About a quarter of the legislators present voted against the
agreement. These represent Sunni and
Shia extremist groups who want U.S. troops out more quickly, so the Sunni and
Shia extremists can make a grab for power without American interference. Many
Iraqis still see the country as thriving only under the iron rule of a
dictator.
November 26,
2008: Eighteen female suicide bombers surrendered to the government, taking
advantage of an amnesty program. The women were persuaded, by religious leaders
and family, to quit the terrorism group
they had joined, as suicide bomber trainees. This is another indication of the
continuing battle within the Sunni Arab community, as the remaining Islamic
terrorists struggle to maintain some power.
November 23,
2008: Separatist PKK rebels claimed responsibility for bombing one of the
pipelines going from the Kirkuk oil fields, through Turkey to a Mediterranean
tanker port. The PKK was long tolerated by the Kurdish government of northern
Iraq. But military and political pressure have changed that, so now the PKK is
going after targets that hurt Kurdish interests in Iraq.
