May 30,
2008: The U.S. is beginning its
withdrawal from Iraq. U.S. troops strength is expected to decline from 170,000
to 140,000 by the end of the Summer. The reduction is made possible by the
growing number of Iraqi army and police units that can do the job. U.S. military
advisors have seen this coming for years, as they tracked dozens of different
metrics (statistics on various aspects of Iraqi performance). The Iraqi armed
forces and police had to be completely rebuilt. That's because the Saddam era
army and police existed mainly to keep Saddam in power. Most of the leadership
in that force was Sunni Arab, and the new Shia and Kurd dominated government
did not trust these guys to serve a democratic Iraq.
These
metrics are kept secret, as the enemy would love to have some insight into the
effectiveness of the security forces. But in the last year, many Iraqi army and
police units have revealed their capabilities through their performance. The
greater number of capable soldiers and cops was a big reason why the Sunni
Arabs turned on the Sunni Arab terror groups (especially al Qaeda) they had
long supported. A year ago, it finally became obvious to most Sunni Arabs that
the Shia majority had finally done the impossible (according to Sunni Arab beliefs)
and created a large number of effective soldiers and police. That force, backed
by the Americans, could not be defeated.
The
attitude towards the U.S. troops had also changed. For five years, the American
troops consistently demonstrated their superior combat ability, while also
observing strict ROE (Rules of Engagement) that protected civilians far better
than Arab terrorists or soldiers ever did. Many Sunni Arabs had come to see the
Americans as protectors (from Shia and Kurd death squads, out for revenge).
When the
security forces went after the Shia militias earlier this year, the militiamen
were dismayed. It was widely known that the Iraqi army and police were
defeating al Qaeda, and a few hold-out Sunni Arab militias. Now these forces
were moving into Shia Mahdi Army strongholds, and the Mahdi gunmen quickly
discovered they could not hold out against these Iraqi troops who dressed like American
troops, and fought a lot like them as well. Worse, the Shia militias could not
exploit the U.S. ROE (and hide out in mosques or use civilians for cover) when
confronted by Iraqi forces. The "new" Iraqi troops were also systematic and
relentless like the Americans. Mahdi Army strongholds in Baghdad and Basra are being taken apart, week
by week. By the end of the Summer, the Mahdi Army will be reduced to weak
remnants.
Iraq still
has the corruption and tribal loyalties, but at least the police are now able
to go after the many criminal gangs that have made life miserable, for more
people, than the terrorism of the last five years. That leaves the corrupt
politicians to be taken down. That depends on trained and disciplined voters,
which are less numerous than the newly reformed security forces.
