January 16, 2008: Venezuelan president
Hugo Chavez has offered to negotiate a peace deal with FARC, as long as Colombia
allowed him to meet with FARC leaders in Colombia. This is unlikely to happen.
Chavez is having FARC problems of his own. He denies that FARC has kidnapped
any Venezuelans, while Venezuelans living along the border say otherwise.
Chavez insists the kidnappers are just common criminals, but family and friends
of the victims insist the "bandits" work for FARC. Chavez wants to turn
Venezuela, and the rest of South America, into a socialist dictatorship (like
Cuba), but is encountering resistance from many of the people he is trying to
help.
January 15, 2008: The U.S. government
identified several financial institutions that were moving money for FARC, and
froze those activities. This will make life difficult for FARC, and reminds the
rebels that this sort of thing will only get worse, as the U.S. increases its
counter-terrorism operations via the international banking system.
January 14, 2008: The Colombian tourism
business is reviving, with 1.05 million arriving last year, more than double
what it was a few years ago. Previously, the peak year for tourism was 1980,
when 1.12 million visitors came. After that, the numbers went down, as leftist
rebel violence and kidnapping increased. The government is now increasing
tourist promotion overseas, and hopes to boost tourist visits to four million
in a few years. This would put Colombia close to where it should be, based on
what other tourist destinations in the region have done since 1980. That would
bring in over $10 billion a year, providing employment for over a million
Colombians. The leftist rebels don't
want this to happen. Prosperity hastens the end of the outfits like FARC. So
today, a group of FARC rebels robbed a boatload of 19 tourists who were
visiting a beach on the Pacific coast. The rebels then kidnapped six of the
tourists (five Colombian and one Norwegian). The police and military are in
pursuit of these kidnappers, and given the intensity of recent counter-terror
operations along the Pacific coast, may succeed.
January 11, 2008: In the wake of FARC
releasing two of its 40-50 high profile kidnapping victims (some 700 others are
held as well), Venezuela has called on the international community to remove
FARC from the list of "international terrorist organizations." France responded
by saying this would not happen until FARC released all of its kidnapping
victims. That would be a business decision FARC would have to make. To release
hostages held, and take no more, would cost the rebels several million dollars
in ransoms, and much more in the future. Although new army and police tactics
have made kidnapping more difficult, it is still a major source of income for
FARC. Without kidnapping, over a thousand gunmen would be off the payroll. But
if that got FARC off the "international terrorism" list, fund raising in Europe
could resume, and FARC leaders could freely travel to more countries (without
worrying about all those arrest warrants). It's unlikely that FARC will give up
kidnapping, because it could be a year or more between the time they free all
their hostages, and when they get off the terrorism list. Moreover, there's a
large chance they wouldn't get off the list, as the U.S. would not agree to
this no matter what FARC does.
January 10, 2008: In cooperation with
the Venezuelan government, FARC released two female kidnap victims, who have been
held for several years. FARC wants two of its leaders, convicted of drug
trafficking and imprisoned in the United States, released in exchange. This is
unlikely to happen, at least until after this year's presidential elections in
the U.S.
January 8, 2008: Police captured ELN leader Carlos Marin
outside the capital. Marin controls about half the ELN, and is the most senior
leader opposed to peace talks. The government has been trying to get peace
negotiations going with the ELN for three years. Carlos Marin has been the
primary obstacle to that. With Marin out of the way, talks will probably
proceed. Five years ago, there were nearly 40,000 armed rebels out in the back
country, in three rebel organizations. Now, AUC has disarmed and accepted
amnesty, FARC is being picked apart, and ELN is suffering desertions by
disillusioned members, and having trouble meeting the payroll. There are less
than 20,000 armed rebels out there now, and that number shrinks each day.
