by Austin Bay
November 23, 2010
Why did North Korea lace a South Korean island with
artillery fire this week, then threaten further escalation? Because sensational
attacks are a vicious form of advertising that reap significant political and
economic dividends. Deadly fits of violence followed by diplomatic tantrums
advance the interests of North Korean tyrant Kim Jong-Il and his Stalinist
Since the Cold War ended, Pyongyang has played a calculated
game with South Korea and its allies, Japan and the United States. The North
launches a military attack or terrorist foray, which is followed by vicious
As time passes and the blood cools, North Korea signals it
is ready to talk and perhaps discuss the possibility of, oh, ending its nuclear
weapons program? However, the North insists on incentives. South Korea, Japan
and the U.S. are urged to provide economic and political carrots so North Korea
will drop its military stick.
Consider the pattern over the last two decades. After his
father, Kim Il-Sung, died in 1994, Kim Jong-Il threatened violence while
conducting nuclear negotiations. The U.S. agreed to supply the North with fuel
oil. In 1998, South Korea began its Sunshine Policy, which included support for
business ventures. Yet the North continued to test ballistic missiles. In
October 2006, North Korea detonated a nuke. The same routine of tantrum then
2010 has been a big year for Kim's dangerous game. This past
March, North Korea sunk a South Korean naval vessel and killed 46 sailors.
South Korea considered a military response. Over the summer, tensions eased.
This fall, the South shipped food to the North. Now artillery shells rain on a
South Korean shopping center.
The game is obvious, yet South Korea and its allies have
consistently rewarded Kim's armed tantrums with economic candy. Despite tough
rhetoric, both Democratic and Republican presidential administrations in the
U.S. have acceded to North Korea's extortion racket.
Four deep concerns give South Korea and the U.S. pause when
considering military action to topple the Kim regime.
The global economy is a huge consideration. Kim's missiles
target valuable economic territory. The destructive consequences of all-out war
in one of the world's most economically productive regions, East Asia, are thus
far judged too great to risk waging one. The possible use of nuclear weapons
adds another grave dimension.
China's reaction is another concern. China does not want a
war on its border. That is bad for business. North Korean refugees might flood
China. But what would China's generals do if they see U.S. and South Korean
armies (much less aided by China's historical enemy, Japan) advancing north of
the DMZ? China is capable of responding with a range of economic, diplomatic
and military efforts. The fact that Beijing, to its discredit, still supports
North Korea's communist state is not a good indicator.
A dynastic change is brewing in the North. Kim Jong-Il has a
favored son, but a war of succession involving other relatives and military
factions is possible. The effects of an internal struggle are difficult to
assess. The next generation may prefer negotiations, or it may be raw,
obstreperous and more prone to desperate action.
A bitterly ironic consideration further tempers South Korean
policy. It took West Germany a decade-plus to pay for East Germany's communist
failure. Given the North's dismal poverty, it could take five decades to make
the wretched place habitable. Many South Koreans do not want to bear that
Yet North Korea intends to acquire a nuclear arsenal, and
this week revealed a sophisticated enrichment facility. A nuclear strike on
Seoul also presents South Koreans with a heavy economic burden, along with
A terrible day of decision is approaching -- the day North
Korea deploys its nuclear warheads. The dangerous game then becomes more
dangerous, and South Korea may no longer enjoy the luxury of avoiding war.
Until that day arrives, North Korea's continued belligerence demonstrates that
the allies' economic incentives are little more than acts of cyclical
ineptitude. Rewards for murderous behavior must end. Let wealthy China pay all
of North Korea's bills. Who knows, investment-savvy Beijing may finally tell
Kim to quit wasting money on nukes.