May 30, 2008: Although Russia considers Chechnya
"pacified," there is still above average violence there. For the first three
months of the year, 17 members of the security forces were killed, compared to
fifteen during the same period last year. About twice as many terrorists and
criminals were killed in both years. There are practical reasons for the persistence
of this violence. The Russians consider unemployment as the major problem in
Chechnya. About half the workforce doesn't have regular employment. So the
gangsters have plenty of recruits, as do the Islamic radicals. Both of these
groups have cash, and employment opportunities. It's dangerous work, but it's
the young guys who are most attracted to these activities.
The
government is less worried about the gangsters (who try to avoid police), than
the religious and nationalist "rebels." The police believe there are about 500
of these guys in the region (Chechnya and its neighboring provinces). Not a
huge problem, but able to provide a steady stream of newsworthy terrorist
attacks.
More of a
problem are the thousands of gangsters inside Chechnya. These are usually
allied with clan based militias, and gun battles between these groups are
common. The media usually can't tell the gangster violence from the terrorist
stuff (although the latter is usually followed with a press release), but the
police and counter-terrorism forces can. No long term solution to either
problem, aside from building up the local economy. That is difficult given the
degree of corruption in the region. So the violence will continue.
