January
12, 2007: A German social scientist (Gunnar Heinsohn) has taken an old truism
of American policing, and applied it on a global scale, to explain why there is
terrorism and war in so many places. Heinsohn's theory is that when there are
too many young men in a country, there will be more violence. This was noted by
American crime researchers decades ago. Thus the explanation for the
skyrocketing American crime rates from the 1960s to the 90s. This was the era
ruled by the post World War II "baby boom."
Medicines
and medical practices (particularly improved water and sanitation) led to a similar
baby boom in the developing world in the latter half of the 20th century.
Heinsohn demonstrated that when 30 percent or more of a population is aged
15-29, you have too many young men with bad attitudes, and the result is a jump
in crime, terrorism and civil unrest. Heinsohn showed that in 90 percent of the
67 of the countries that have the 30 percent "Youth Bulge" (as demographers put
it) you have massive unrest. Moreover, 13 of the 27 nations with the largest
Youth Bulge are Moslem. In fact, most of the Youth Bulge is found in Africa and
in Moslem nations.
Heinsohn
also points that many historical upheavals were attributable, at least in part,
to the Youth Bulge. These would include the American and French Revolutions and
many other uprisings in places like Ireland and Latin America. The current
growth of Youth Bulge can largely be blamed on Western efforts to improve the
lives and health of people in the developing world. No good deed goes
unpunished.
This
"youthquake" problem is taken for granted by many experienced terrorism and
criminology experts. But the pattern is not generally recognized as the main
cause of unrest. However, historically it appears to be the case. In
pre-industrial societies, 5-10 years of favorable weather would create an abundance
of food, and a population explosion. There would follow a period of civil
unrest and wars as these kids came of age. Zoologists note the same pattern in
animal populations. Humans are more complex beasts, but just as the American
crime rates began to plunge in the 1990s, as the Youth Bulge disappeared, so
will the civil disorders and terrorism now causing so much misery. The one new
element is the presence of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which youthful
rebels have already used once (the Japanese terrorist attacks with nerve gas in
1995). This has led to the current dispute between those who advocate taking
the youthful terrorists head on, and those who prefer to treat the terrorists
like a police problem, and basically wait them out. For many in the United
States, terrorists using airliners as WMD on September 11, 2001, was
justification for declaring war on unruly youth.
