December
28, 2006: Where is Osama bin Laden, and why hasn't he been caught? It's been
two years since Osama made a public statement via video. His buddy, and second
in command (and real brains behind the organization), Ayman al Zawahiri's rant
just before Christmas was the first time he'd been heard from in an unusually
long time. Although they've both almost certainly gone into very deep hiding,
certainly in Pakistan, we must have gotten close a couple of times. In any
event, it's all very strange.
The
CIA has a number of people with experience, and connections, in the Pushtun
tribal areas, and these guys have proved, over the years, capable to getting
things done, or at least obtaining information, in the tribal areas. But the
degree of secrecy about American operations in this region has been
extraordinary. Most of what does come out, is stories of talks with tribal
chiefs and elders, and long stakeouts by Special Forces recon teams, followed
by occasional glimpses of what might have been a key target. American commandos
have been particularly polite and well behaved in the tribal areas, apparently
on the theory that the fewer enemies they have there, the better. The Special
Forces do have friends in the region. Periodically, the Taliban or al Qaeda
will very publicly execute several locals for being "American spies." But
still, no luck bringing in half a dozen or so prime targets. Apparently the
tribesmen consider bin Laden and his key aides to be be big celebrities. So
even $25 million rewards do not overcome the shame of being tagged as the guy
who betrayed an icon. However, what has come out of the hills is that an
increasing number of tribesmen are tempted, if only because al Qaeda's
celebrity status has been degraded by the lack of attacks on the U.S., and the
growing number of Moslems killed by al Qaeda in places like Iraq.
Killing
either of bin Laden or al Zawahiri will probably have more of an impact on
events in Afghanistan than on the overall war on Islamist extremism, but it
would certainly help.
