August 21,
2008: Syria has been testing its
ballistic missile inventory lately, with over a dozen missiles fired in the
last few months. Israel has made no secret of the fact that, in a future war
with Syria, they estimate that there would be as many as 3,300 Israeli
casualties (including up to 200 dead). That's if Syria just used its long range
missiles armed with conventional warheads (high explosives or cluster bombs).
If the Syrians used chemical warheads, Israeli casualties could be as high as
16,000. Over 200,000 Israelis would be left homeless, and it's believed about a
100,000 would seek to leave the country.
Syria has
underground storage and launch facilities for its arsenal of over a thousand
SCUD missiles. Armed with half ton high explosive and cluster bomb warheads,
the missiles have ranges of 500-700 kilometers. Syria also has some 90 older
Russian Frog-7 missiles (70 kilometer range, half ton warhead) and 210 more
modern Russian SS-21 missiles (120 kilometer range, half ton warhead) operating with mobile
launchers. There are also 60 mobile SCUD launchers. The Syrians have a large
network of camouflaged launching sites for the mobile launchers. Iran and North
Korea have helped Syria build underground SCUD manufacturing and maintenance
facilities. The Syrian missiles are meant to hit Israeli airfields, missile
launching sites and nuclear weapons sites, as well as population centers. Syria
hopes to do enough damage with a missile strike to cripple Israeli combat
capability.
Israel has
long been aware of the Syrian capabilities and any war with Syria would
probably result in some interesting attacks on the Syrian missile network. The
SCUD is a liquid fuel missile and takes half an hour or more to fuel and ready
for launch. So underground facilities are a major defensive measure against an
alert and astute opponent like Israel. Syria has some solid fueled SS-21
missiles (and is shopping for more) these only have a range of 120 kilometers.
It is feared
that the recent Syrian tests are partly training exercises to see how ready the
missile launcher crews are. Some of the tests may have tested new guidance
systems, perhaps using GPS or Russian Glonass to attain high accuracy. Syria has been working more closely with
Russian military suppliers lately, and has been a client state of Iran for over
two decades.
