January
10, 2007: While the current fighting in Somalia has been described as a war,
it's actually more of a peacekeeping operation. Ethiopia apparently sent in
only about 5,000 troops. As is often the case in peacekeeping missions, these
trained soldiers quickly dispersed the untrained militias of the Islamic
Courts. Dispersed, but not destroyed. Now comes the hard part. Ethiopia does
not want to keep its soldiers in Somalia, if only because it's expensive, and
Somalis don't like Ethiopians (who are a traditional enemy, as well as largely
Christian.) Meanwhile, Kenya has sent a few thousand more troops to its 650
kilometer border with Somalia, to try and prevent Islamic radicals from getting
in. The Kenyans have already made several dozen arrests, but most of the
refugees so far are women and children, apparently the families of Islamic
Courts leaders, being sent away for safekeeping. The Islamic Courts proved to
be more talk than action during December, when they enthusiastically
trash-talked the Ethiopians, then quickly folded when pressed. Now the Islamic
Courts leadership has been advised, by al Qaeda, to launch a guerilla war
against the Transitional Government. In light of this, few countries are
willing to send peacekeepers in. Even Uganda, which had been eager before to send
a thousand troops, is having second thoughts.
Without
peacekeepers, or perhaps even with them, Somalia seems likely to slide back
into its constant, centuries old, cycle of clan feuds and anarchy. This makes
al Qaeda inspired guerilla war redundant. And the neighbors know that, and
don't want any part of it. Looks like Somalia is going to have to supply its
own peacekeepers, or slide back into chaos. In this respect, they may be aided
by U.S. Special Forces. These fellows are from a counter-terrorism task force
that has been operating up north (in Djibouti) for five years. The American
commandos have regularly been sending small teams into Somalia, and using some
hired locals as well. Coming out of the shadows now may be possible because the
Transitional Government is temporarily in control of the entire country (less
the breakaway regions of Puntland and Somaliland). The U.S. already has more
Special Forces and CIA people in Somalia, trying to round up, or kill, Islamic
terrorists who had taken up residence. They are becoming visible to the mass
media, and may just be turned into peacekeepers to keep the wild gossip in
check.
