April 10, 2024:
Despite the heavy troop and economic losses Russia has suffered because of its invasion of Ukraine, Russian leader Vladimir Putin depends on classic Russian stoic wartime behavior to avoid public demonstrations by opponents of the war. According to polls only 54 percent of Russian adults closely follow what is going on in Ukraine. Before the invasion, Putin believed it would be over quickly with little resistance. That was a major miscalculation and so far over a million Russian soldiers have been casualties, and most of the Russian tank force has been destroyed. Many of the lost tanks were abandoned by their crews while Ukrainians who captured the tanks intact simply repainted the tanks to indicate they were now Ukrainian not Russian. Initially both sides used the same kinds of tanks. In the last year Ukraine has been receiving German, American and Swedish tanks. These tanks are far more capable than Russian tanks.
In some cases, Western tanks are not used in combat. Instead, their superior sensors are used at night to spot Russian tanks beyond the range of the tanks main gun and call in artillery fire to destroy the Russian tanks and other combat vehicles. This is demoralizing Russian troops, who are being attacked by an enemy they can’t see or shoot back at. Ukraine also uses lots of cheap UAVs, many with day/night vision surveillance cameras, so the UAV operator can locate Russian troops and direct armed UAVs to attack the Russians. This causes a lot of Russian casualties and, when the Russian wounded return to Russia for treatment, they spread details of how badly the war is going.
Since the war began the Russian government has outlawed reporting details of how badly the war is for Russian troops. That doesn’t stop the bad news from spreading throughout Russia. When families discover that their sons have been killed or crippled by wounds in Ukraine, word of mouth does the rest. The Russian does not punish the families of soldiers killed or crippled by wounds in Ukraine for doing this. Such anti-war propaganda is becoming more widespread. The more Russian casualties, the more Russian civilians will discover what is really happening in Ukraine and won’t be able to ignore it, especially if a friend or family member is killed or crippled in Ukraine.
Meanwhile the economic sanctions continue, making life more difficult for most Russians. Senior leadership and wealthy Russians don’t suffer and are more willing to keep fighting in Ukraine no matter how many Russians they don’t know are killed there.
