February 28, 2008: Remember Iraq? You know, the war we lost? The big failure we were wasting our lives and
"treasure" on? Yeah, that one. Haven't heard much about it lately, right?
That's because Iraq has disappeared off the international radar, and for good
reasons. Enemy activity levels are at
the lowest levels in years. The Iraqi
Police and military is growing in leaps and bounds. Half of the country has been turned back over
to Iraqi control and next month, Anbar Province will become the tenth province
turned over. So what has been going on
there anyway?
Politically, the Iraqi Parliament has
been passing landmark legislation on Baathist (Sunni Arab) reconciliation, oil
revenues, and provincial elections. They
even passed a budget. Numerous political
parties have come together and compromised to move the country further. The economy continues to grow and the people
are prospering.
What was once the resistance has woken
up and become the Sahawa Movement or the "Awakening". They became Concerned Local Citizens (CLCs),
now Sons of Iraq (SoI). They number over
80,000 today and approximately one quarter will go on to join the Iraqi Police
or Army. Other members will work in the
public sector. Others will go back to
work.
In 2007, Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) lost 75
percent of its members and now numbers in the thousands. As the tables turned in 2007, members of AQI
switched sides and have begun providing intelligence to Coalition Forces. What was once a larger organization almost
able to bring the nation into a civil war, is now a collection of networks
hunted constantly by Coalition Forces and the Iraqis themselves. AQI looses key leadership on an almost daily
basis. The group has moved northward or
is hiding in rural areas. AQI is not
eliminated yet and is still able to attack, but is not what it once was.
Back in August, Shia radical Muqtada al
Sadr called a six-month ceasefire for the Mahdi Army (Jaysh al Mahdi or
JAM). Recently, the call was renewed
despite cries within the organization to resume militia activity. What was once a massive organization
estimated at 40,000 strong is splintered and has remained inactive for over six
months. One of the splinters is the
Special Groups, who were backed by Iran with money, training, and weapons. Special Groups have also lost key leadership
and are most active in one neighborhood in north Baghdad.
The idea of Kurdish separatism was
dropped with the Turkish pursuit of the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) in
northern Iraq. Iraqi Kurds evaluated
their situation in Iraq and their relationship with Turkey and took sides
against the PKK. The PKK has lost hundreds
of fighters and facilities. They took a
gamble and lost.
Iraq has not reached its ideal end
state yet. It will take more time to
eliminate AQI and Special Groups from the country and spread stability to all
corners of the country. Events in Iraq have
been eclipsed by incidents in Pakistan, North Africa, and Lebanon. Events elsewhere have become more pivotal in
the Global War on Terrorism. -- Jonathan Henry
jhenry@osianintel.com
