Murphy's Law: How Publicity Warps Reality

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November 3, 2006: For all the publicity they get, the U.S. Air Force MQ-1 Predator UAV doesn't get a lot of action. Only about 30 Predators are deployed overseas. Each Predator averages about 110 hours in the air each month. Each aircraft flies 6-7 sorties a month, each one lasting 17-18 hours on average. While the air force is working to create fifteen Predator squadrons, there are only four on active duty (one is for training and another belongs to SOCOM). Each Predator squadron has at least twelve UAVs, and sometimes as many as 24. Squadrons have 400-500 personnel. Only about two thirds of those troops go overseas with the UAVs. The rest stay behind in the United States, and fly the Predators via a satellite link.

However, most of the UAV work is done by over a thousand smaller (under ten pound) micro-UAVs like the Raven. The soldiers and marines work these little UAVs to death, because these tiny aircraft have become a matter of life-or-death. The troops control these micro-aircraft, and use them in combat operations daily. But the air force, and the manufacturers, have been successful at keeping the Predator in the news, even though Predator is not the major player in the UAV world.

The air force has bought about 250 Predators so far, and a quarter of those are not yet delivered. Most of the ones in use are Predator A's, which cost $4.5 and can stay in the air for up to 40 hours. Most of those still on order are $9 million MQ-9A Reaper (formerly called "Predator B"), which can carry two, or more, Hellfire missiles (or 500 pound smart bombs). The Reapers will serve in separate "attack squadrons." The Predators are in reconnaissance squadrons.

The initial buy of Reapers is for 36 aircraft, and nine sets of control equipment. Thus the Reaper will operate in sections of four aircraft, one of which can be in the air at a time. As with the Predator, Reaper flight crews (usually a pilot and one sensor operator) are based back in the United States, with only maintenance personnel going overseas.

 

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