October 13,
2008: Iran has taken tighter control
over Hezbollah, a Lebanese organization it founded, armed and heavily
influenced for over a quarter century. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is still fuming
over the killing, last February of their number two guy, Imad Mughniyeh, in
Syria. He was killed by a car bomb in Damascus. This was embarrassing for
Syria, a police state with a long reputation for getting along with terrorists.
Israel was blamed, although there were plenty of other suspects (Saudi Arabia,
Lebanese, even Iraqis and Iran). But now a replacement for Mughniyeh has been
revealed. It's Mohammad Rida Zahidi, a senior officer in one of the many secret
police organizations that keep Iranians in line. Zahidi's most recent
assignment was to run the security organization that protected senior
government officials. A decade ago, he served as a senior official in the
Iranian embassy in Lebanon.
Zahidi will
take over the late Mughniyeh's chores of coordinating operations between
Hezbollah and Syria. That's a critical job, as most Hezbollah weapons, and much
else, comes across the Syrian border into Lebanon. Mughniyeh was considered the
number two man in Hezbollah. But while Mughniyeh was Lebanese, Zahidi is an
Iranian. It's believed that the Iranians want Hezbollah to calm down and not
engage in risky behavior (like the 2006 war with Israel, which Hezbollah
declared a victory, but wasn't, and Iran knows it.)
In an
attempt to get some revenge for Mughniyeh's death, Hezbollah has threatened to
make attacks against Israeli targets outside of Israel. This has not been done
much in the past because Hezbollah relied on fund raising and recruiting among
Moslems (especially Shia) living outside the Middle East (especially in the
West). But in the past few years, Western counter-terror efforts have cracked
down on both of these activities anyway. So there is real fear that the furor
over Mughniyeh's death will encourage Hezbollah to branch out into
international terrorism. The downside of this is increased international
efforts against Hezbollah. Logic, however, does not always play with Hezbollah,
or the Islamic radicals in the Iranian government who provide money and weapons
for the Lebanese based Hezbollah. Then again, the Iranian Islamic radicals are
on the defensive at home, where Iranians are increasingly angry over how the
religious dictatorship has mismanaged the economy, and stepped up use of
religious police to enforce rules on how people are supposed to live (no
entertainment, dress codes for young men and women, press censorship, etc).
Going international with their terrorism would be a big mistake for Hezbollah,
but they just might do it. Unless their new number 2 guy, the Iranian secret
policeman Zahidi, stops them.
