January
22, 2007: Relations between Iran's unstable President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and
the country's religious leadership continue to deteriorate. The president has
been defying the international community, by rattling nuclear sabers (though
Iran actually doesn't any yet), which has led to the imposition of extensive
economic and political sanctions by the U.N. Security Council on December 23,
2006. Apparently in response to this, several newspapers controlled by the
country's religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is also the nation's
"Supreme Leader," issued a stunning rebuke to the president a few weeks later,
telling him to keep his hands off the country's nuclear research program. This
move does not represent a repudiation of the country's nuclear ambitions by
Khamenei. The Ayatollah and the arch-conservative religious leadership, and
most Iranians (including anti-government elements) believe the country has an
inherent right to pursue nuclear power. And, of course, possibly nuclear
weapons as well.
But
Khamenei and the religious leadership have come to realize that Ahmadinejad's
wild antics are politically dangerous. Under the religiously-ordained
constitution the president of Iran has surprisingly limited powers. In fact,
his authority is largely confined to domestic matters. Foreign affairs are the
domain of the Supreme Leader. Until recently, Ahmadinejad was allowed
considerable latitude, and made frequent forays into foreign affairs. This was
acceptable to the religious leadership in so far as it involved routine
condemnations of "The Zionist Entity" (Israel) and "The Great Satan" (The
U.S.). But over the past few months his antics have led to the increasing
isolation of the country.
After
only a month the U.N. sanctions have already resulted in a further weakening of
Iran's already parlous economy, strained by corruption, low investment, and the
diversion of enormous sums to sustain a military build-up and subsidize Hamas
and Hezbollah against Israel. Oil production, the mainstay of the economy, has
been adversely affected by the sanctions, which block the shipment of critical
equipment and chemicals that sustain production and refining. While smuggling,
and dealing with outlaw regimes such as North Korea, will enable the Iranians
to get 'round many of the sanctions, the price of materials goes way up,
further straining the country's foreign exchange reserves.
The
decline in economic activity has been marked. Trading on the country's stock
market, already depressed, has declined by nearly half since the U.N. action,
and inflation had become severe, while the government is barely managing to pay
its bills on time.
Although
Ahmadinejad dismissed the U.N. resolution as "a piece of torn paper," the
pro-Khamenei newspaper Jomhouri-Eslami said, "The resolution is certainly
harmful for the country," but that it was hardly "a piece of torn paper," and
urged a more flexible approach to resolving the confrontation over the
country's nuclear program
A
month ago, the religious leadership sent Ahmadinejad a "message," when it more
or less rigged elections for municipal councils and the national "Council of
Experts," in favor of more moderate, or at least less pro-Ahmadinejad
candidates. A vocal anti-Ahmadinejad bloc seems to have developed in the
nation's Parliament, with legislators demanding he appear to answer questions
about the country's nuclear policies and others openly criticizing his economic
policies.
Just
how much time Ahmadinejad has left may be a matter for the bookies. Although
when he's gone, major issues will continue to keep the U.S. and its allies and
supporters at odds with Iran, the removal of his shrill of level of rhetorice
will improve the chances for a reduction in tension.
