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China Quietly Defends Iran

August 12, 2009: While Iran has been unable to get modern Russian S300 surface-to-air missiles (yet), they have gone ahead and built a nationwide air defense network using Chinese HQ2 missiles. These were first purchased in the 1980s, but since then, Iran progressed to the point where they are now building HQ2 missiles and radar stations under license. It's believed that China has quietly allowed Iran to build the latest versions of the HQ2 as well. These are not quite as effective as the S300, but are pretty formidable.

The HQ-2 is a Chinese version of the Russian SA-2 system (from the 1950s). The Chinese have upgraded the SA-2 with modern electronics, an improved warhead, better rocket motors and more maneuverability. Their inventory of missiles is believed to be about 10,000. However, many are older models, and many of these are probably of uncertain reliability. American electronic countermeasures can probably defeat all models of the HQ-2. Newer models of the HQ-2 have a range of 40 kilometers, and will hit the target 70 percent of the time (if there are no countermeasures.) The HQ-2 radars have a hard time dealing with stealthy aircraft, and the radar is needed to guide the missile to its target (via radio signals from the ground to the missile).

China has been able to purchase Russian S300 systems, but still has an incentive to improve their HQ2s. That's because about half of their 150 air defense missile battalions are equipped with HQ2s, and that is not likely to change any time soon. So the Chinese are probably continuing to make improvements in the HQ2, and selling the technology to Iran. China wants long term access to Iranian oil, and helping upgrade Iranian air defenses is one way to help with the oil situation.

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Spiky    You Don't Say?!?   8/12/2009 9:35:52 AM
"China wants long term access to Iranian oil, and helping upgrade Iranian air defenses is one way to help with the oil situation."
 
 
Jeez, I have been pointing out some of these points regarding Iran/China/Oil for months. The Chinese will NEVER break their relationship with Iran, or vote against them in the U.N. or give a rat's ass about our interests or worries about a nuclear Iran. As long as Iran has oil, China will help them out. China will not help embargo or sanction Iran, period.
 
By the way, it is also looking more and more like Obama's failed diplomatic efforts to get Russia to put serious pressure on Iran is becoming obvious. No surprise there either.
 
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pmukherjee    India should learn   8/13/2009 4:34:19 AM
Iran is an old friend of India. Perhaps India should learn from China how to stand by its international commitments and trusted friends and not get swayed every time a strong wind blows in from Washington DC. I am sure we will come to that, may take us another two or three decades to be strong enough to do that.
 
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trenchsol       8/13/2009 6:00:22 AM
If there is no consensus about anti-Iran sanctions, there is still Israeli solution. Liberal forces from inside Iran did not make it this time, too. US Democrats have announced better relations with Iran, but it is barely even mentioned today.
 
So, I guess, Israel is on the move. I have confidence in them.
 
DG

 
 
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Spiky    trenchsol   8/13/2009 2:21:37 PM
I agree, it just might come to that.
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 2:56:34 PM
This article is misunformed.
Iran has used the HQ2  2 decades ago because they had not an industry to produce missile during Iraq war.
But since in 3 decades Iran has improved much more its technology up to the point they are one of the very few country to master big solid propulsion has they have prove it with their new IRBM;
Iran has produced the HAWK for several years and also the SM1 which are much better and recent design.Even SM1 iranian update and modernisation was according to rumor not that successful.
Iran produce radars.
However to get a robust defense system you need 4 things
A radar, an missile as a platform, its seeker and a C3 system.
For missile as a platform Iran does not need the HQ2 as they have much better and master well powder propulsion so the HQ2 story is totally obsolete.Iran can produce by it self a missile which match SA300 kinematic performance.
Now you have seeker problem and again Iran has no problem to produce something better than Hawk or SM1 and so HQ2.
For C3 system they have also capacity to design their own and have proven it, and moreover C3 rely on dual use technologies.
For radar Iran has done reverse engineering of F14 or Hawk PIP radar for a long time and again they do not need anything related to HQ2.
Their problem is to get a modern radar with phase array antennas and likely PESA (I do not see Iranian today been able to build the huge infrastructure needed to produce a MMIC for AESA even in C band )
People here do not understand what Iranian do.
They build advanced foreign system and mostly to Russian in order to reverse engineering them and to embed tech and lessons in their own systems.
At most, they buy military components to Chinese, Russian or even ukrainians.
So they bought 29 Tor M1 and try to purchase some SA300.
Short range defense is based of their guns, Misagh 2 and their local copy of improved french Crotale which is based on Chinese copy.Not the Tor M1.
For long range air defense we know that they are trying to build by themselves some phased array radars and advanced active seekers as some published articles on their advances on some key technologies from their universities show it.
 
What we can says today is that Iran has already a medium long range system probably based on Hawk and improved by embedding recent digital technology and far more advanced than HQ2 and with much better kinematc performance.
As air defense systems are key to resist to a US or Israeli attack they do not disclose this sytem operational since 5 or 6 years since the time they have just saud we have developped a long range SAM (but they never show it).
Then, we don't know how much is advanced and if it has modern advanced phase array radars like the Chinese Patriot.If seeker are semiactive, or active.And how much they have.
Logic would be that they have build few thousand missiles and maybe an hundred system.But they hide it.
Now we can be sure that they are seeking an improved system but we have no clues if their new system is operational and when.
But we can be sure that their system is not based on HQ2.
 
 
 
 
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 3:04:07 PM
read
As air defense systems are key to resist to a US or an Israeli attack, they do not disclose this sytem which is operational since 5 or 6 years since the time they have just said "we have developped a new long range SAM" (but they never show it).
As US or Israelis have not the exact figure of what Iranian have, it introduces at lot of unknown parameter in their planning.
Knowing your foe system allow much better planning.
And Iranians by purpose, do not disclose this system in order to deter.
They have a huge interest to show massive number of antitank, or IRBM to show that they can hurt, but not their air defense.
 
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warpig       8/13/2009 3:15:00 PM

What we can says today is that Iran has already a medium long range system probably based on Hawk and improved by embedding recent digital technology and far more advanced than HQ2 and with much better kinematc performance.

As air defense systems are key to resist to a US or Israeli attack they do not disclose this sytem operational since 5 or 6 years since the time they have just saud we have developped a long range SAM (but they never show it).

Then, we don't know how much is advanced and if it has modern advanced phase array radars like the Chinese Patriot.If seeker are semiactive, or active.And how much they have.

Logic would be that they have build few thousand missiles and maybe an hundred system.But they hide it.

Now we can be sure that they are seeking an improved system but we have no clues if their new system is operational and when.
 


You've been pushing this allegation on StrategyPage for several years.  You were totally wrong back then, and you're still flat-out wrong today.
 

 
 
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warpig       8/13/2009 3:21:11 PM

read


As air defense systems are key to resist to a US or an Israeli attack, they do not disclose this sytem which is operational since 5 or 6 years since the time they have just said "we have developped a new long range SAM" (but they never show it).

As US or Israelis have not the exact figure of what Iranian have, it introduces at lot of unknown parameter in their planning.

Knowing your foe system allow much better planning.

And Iranians by purpose, do not disclose this system in order to deter.

They have a huge interest to show massive number of antitank, or IRBM to show that they can hurt, but not their air defense.



 

How much deterrence does an undeployed SAM system (assuming arrguendo that it even existed) that's never been exercised and integrated into their IADS present?  Zippy.
 
Honestly, after (I'd guess about) five years of you making some posts about Iran's IADS I'm still not sure what your angle could be for this completely unsubstantiated obsession you have with grossly exaggerating Iran's air defense capability.
 
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 3:23:34 PM
My little warpig.
I'm right and you willl know that the coming years.
It is simply impossible and absurd that Iranian have not leveraged their tech for a decent air defense system when we had seen their ability to keep F14 in service, their ability to produce Hawk locally and this for a decade, or their recent ability to master big solid propulsion.
Any serious defense analyst with strong technological background and which follow Iran, even on open sources, would says it.
They have deploy something in numbers but it is not public and not an obsolete system as an HQ2.
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 3:46:19 PM
They have show recently such a system (Shahin) and with a phased array radar (maybe build on chinese components or licenced, for the likely PESA antenna) like I predicted
It seems based on Hawk but this is for years already.They have probably disclose it now because they have too much of them and need now to deploy too much of them on the field to hide it anymore.
 
They probably have a brand new longuer range missile not yet disclosed.Maybe a two stage Hawk derivative.
They had accessed to Phoenix missiles and they had for a long time some insights of how get a datalink and a strap down inertial system for SM2 like capabilities.
Tor M1 or SA 300 would not account for much than 10% of their capability in modern systems.
Same for their Saeqeh  fighter based on F5 with a twin tail
It is a decoy.
The Saeqeh  is likely only a test bench to master flyby wire systems so the 'useless) twin tail to evaluate properly FBW software with such an aerodynamic formula.
Their real fighter not yet disclosed and on design stage will be much heavier and advanced,...and stealthy (so the twin tail formula to master).Of course it would have not F35 performance and to produce an advanced engine is very difficult for it.
I'm an engineer and a senior manager and I think how I would design a Iranian weapon industry considering their real assets if I was in charge of Iran.And systematically I'm right and for a decade.
 
 
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 3:52:24 PM
Mastering big solid propulsion is an achievment not shared by more a dozen state.Soviet did it late.
It they master that, they master propulsion for a SA300 equivalent.
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 3:57:25 PM
What is interesting to notice on the Shahin video and you can notice on radar flat panel display, is that radar turn 360 ° and refresh in 2 seconds.It is similar to western air defense system on this point (like Arabel or Empar radars).
It is not 50ies tech but 90ies.
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 4:21:33 PM
Iran is simply building a militaro industrial complex like advanced western nations or Israel
And fondation of such a militaro industrial complex is indigenous science and technology.
And they have more than 200 technology institutes and teams working on that which publish articles like western countries in order to give idea of what capabilities they have.
It takes decades but Iranian have started 2 decades ago now and even with some propaganda or decoys, it start to make results.
Page 6
A lot of people joke about that especially here, and underestimate them, but Iranian are far to be uneducated primitives.They are not arabs.
It  take time and effort but they do the spending like Japan have done in Meiji period starting in 1868 to become a nation able to beat Russian in 1905 (38 years later) with their own weapons.
Third order nations try to buy abroad and waste their foreign currencies reserve, but you have never the best tech, your systems are well known,  and your are dependant.
The total danger of Iran is even more in its seek for advanced conventional weapon design ability and self sufficiency manufacturing  than its seek for nuclear weapons.
They will have both.And it makes them the most dangerous nation in world today considering their will and goals and geographical position.
Their defense militaro industrial complex  will be close in tech level to Israel in a decade if they are not attacked, and with a much bigger range of weapons including fighter , submarine, ICBM and so on.They are a 70 million educated (now) people nation and with oil to fund their programs
Iran is going to be the new incumbent in world powers if they are not stopped in the coming years, and they are not willing to respect status quo but to reign supreme in their region which produce most of world oil.
Iran is directing western world to WW3 or a new cold war if they are not stopped.
 
 
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 4:29:29 PM
The mortal danger for Israel is not that Iran destroy Tel Aviv with a nuke, they do not need to do that.
It is that Iranian will destabilized neighbor countries in the coming 20 years, like Egypt or Jordan in order to get revenge on Israel and supply all local ennemies of Israel with advanced weapons.
Then Iran will be protected by its huge nuclear deterrent in 15 years maybe.
It would be like in pre war 1973 when soviets help arabs regimes but in much more agressive way and they would much more improve skills of arabs ennemies.
Israel may have to redo Yom Kippour war but with a much stronger ennemy and an ennemy willing to protect its allies against the nuclear option Israel was close to use in 1973.
 
 
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french stratege       8/13/2009 4:41:40 PM
Probably Iran is only using Israel as a tool to weaken arabs regime and dominate area.
The main long term goal of Iran is not probably Israel but to get USA out of the area.
And for that they have support of Chinese and Russians who leverage them as mutch in the local "great game".
Moreover to counter USA Iran will play global.
Venezuela or North korea which WILL benefit of Iranian military industrial complex.
Futur with a such powerful Iran if not stopped is a nighmare.
But how to stop Iran without provoking a global economic and military crisis since they can try to interrupt oil flow and provoke a civil war in arabs regime like Saudia arabia?
 
 
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