The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
More Books by James Dunnigan
|
Dirty Little Secrets
Why North Korea Must Have Nukes
by James Dunnigan
September 8, 2005
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
North Korea still refuses to exchange its nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles for increased economic aid and guarantees of peace. Even though the
population is starving, and the economy is a mess, the northerners hold tightly
to their nukes. This seems strange, when you consider that North Korea has one
of the largest armies in the region. With over a million troops on active duty,
most of them conscripts in for at least six years, North Korea has long
threatened to invade South Korea again, as it did in 1950. But the reality of
the North Korean armed forces is quite different. Over the last few years, more
South Koreans, plus aid workers from outside the region, have been allowed in
North Korea, where they see what is actually going on. That, plus more North
Koreans have been getting out. This has made it possible to make a more accurate
assessment of military power in the north.
First of all, their equipment
is old, decrepit and poorly maintained. Most of their tanks are elderly T-62s (a
1960s design), and T-54s (a half century old design). Fuel shortages make it
impossible to train the crews, especially the drivers. Money shortages mean few
spare parts and little gunnery practice. Put their 3,000 tanks up against what
South Korea and the U.S. has, and there will be a general slaughter of the North
Korean vehicles. Iraq had better tanks, and better trained crews in 1991 and
2003, and got quickly blown off the battlefield both times. The North Korean air
force is not much better, although they have gotten some MiG-29s, but they
cannot afford the fuel for their pilots to fly them on many training missions.
It’s another massacre in the making. The navy is in slightly better shape, as
they have some submarines that could be a problem. Again, these boats don’t get
to sea that often, which means the crews will make mistakes in
wartime.
The big fear down south was always been the hundreds of
thousands of North Korean infantry coming across the border, especially through
the mountainous, forested portions in the east. But the North Korean infantry is
poorly fed, led and trained. Despite diverting resources, including foreign food
donations, to the military, there has not been enough to keep the army up to
snuff. Even over 100,000 commandoes, long believed to be a key weapon in any
move south, are hobbled by lack of resources. Most of these elite troops will
have to hike over the mountains along the DMZ, because their air and sea
transport is no longer in working order. The South Koreans are also prepared to
deal with these troops, at least enough to make sure the northern super soldiers
are not a decisive weapon.
Even the North Korean artillery and rockets,
many of them within range of the South Korean capital, Seoul, are much less
potent than they used to be. Lack of fuel and spare parts has limited training,
and the North Korean tactics were never that effective anyway. While a few
hundred of the long range guns, and rockets, can reach Seoul (and kill hundreds,
if not thousands, of civilians), most of the northern artillery will get
destroyed by superior artillery and air power.
The North Korean
leadership are apparently well aware of all this. Which is why they place so
much faith in nuclear weapons. Only nukes can put them back into the balance of
terror game, and provide a credible weapon with which to blackmail their
neighbors, and the United States.
|
|
